NDP plus Wynne = Nightmare!

Lorrie Goldstein clearly lays out the case for a PC majority here: Horwath now open to coalition government with Wynne. This is scary stuff. Probably the absolute worst-case scenario. Horwath is now flip-flopping on a previous statement that no way would she work with Wynne.

…Despite that, Horwath now appears open to cutting a deal with Wynne to become premier if she fails to win a majority of 63 of the legislature’s 124 seats.

Under that scenario, Horwath could win fewer seats than Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservatives, who are running neck-and-neck in the polls with the NDP. and still become premier, if neither the PCs or NDP win 63 seats.

In that case Wynne, whose Liberals are running in third place in the polls, would hold the balance of power in deciding whether to make Horwath or Ford premier.

I can’t come up with even one optimistic thought to comfort myself in that event, other than I might possibly still get my “free” dental care – if Horwath can be trusted to at least keep that promise.

Update:

LILLEY: Foreign-funded activist group helping Andrea Horwath’s NDP – Toronto Sun:

Why is a Vancouver-based group, substantially funded and founded by American billionaires through a San Francisco based foundation working against Ontario’s PC Party?

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92 Responses to NDP plus Wynne = Nightmare!

  1. Liz J says:

    I’d bet my bottom dollar Horwath will cut a deal with Wynne to form government. They are political cousins. For us, it would be a real disaster, the worst we’ve ever had IMO given the shambles we are in after.
    If there are enough people that uninformed, stupid or from the “what’s in it for me genre” to have this play out Ontario is heading down a very scary path.

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  2. Miles Lunn says:

    Not surprised Wynne admits she won’t win, similar thing happened here in BC in 2001 when the BC Liberals had over a 40 point lead. Ujjal Dosanjh admitted the NDP wouldn’t win but urged people to vote for them so there was some opposition and the BC Liberals didn’t win all 79 seats. What impact it had is hard to say but the final results were 77 BC Liberals to 2 BC NDP.

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  3. Anne in swON says:

    If Wynne can keep liberal voters from voting NDP that bodes well for the PC because it makes it possible for the PC to come up the middle in some ridings. This can be seen as a positive for us because now Andrea has to focus on pulling voters from the LPO base in addition to the PC base. That’s a monumental task!

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    • Miles Lunn says:

      It’s hard to say what the impact will be. If it does as you say, that is great news, but some are suggesting it will do the opposite. I think at this point its tough to say but suspect unless polls are massively off it will be a dogfight. The two advantages PCs have is their vote is more efficient so they don’t necessarily have to win the popular vote to win a majority as well as their supporters are more likely to show up.

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    • Anne in swON says:

      According to a CTV article political scientist Chris Cochrane claims that because the LPO and NDP are offering very similar policies “the Liberals would rather see Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives win because an NDP victory would make the NDP a more credible “progressive alternative” in future elections.” That’s something that never crossed my mind but it certainly makes sense. They also need the per vote subsidy to help fill their coffers which means every vote counts.

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      • joannebly says:

        Very interesting Anne! Yes the Liberals need to fear being rendered irrelevant and broke.

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      • Greg says:

        In other words, the NDP will get all the union money and ads for a while.

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        • Miles Lunn says:

          The NDP is even cozier with unions than the LIberals. In fact comparing to the two NDP governments now in power, Horwath NDP will be even more ideological. While Notley was fairly ideological early on, as soon as the right united she knew her only hope was to pivot towards the centre. Probably won’t be enough to save her, but I still think the NDP will probably get around 30% of the popular vote next year. They will probably win most Edmonton ridings, a few central Calgary ones, maybe a few in the Capital region, and the two Lethbridge ones, but the UCP will sweep pretty much almost all the ridings outside the two big cities and win the vast majority in Calgary and maybe a few in Edmonton.

          In BC, the NDP is definitely more ideological although I actually think on the Transmountain pipeline, Horgan would have backed down if he had a majority and its more the fear of the Greens why he isn’t. On other issues they are bad but at least on things like minimum wage increase, the BC NDP are phasing it in rather than doing at once while on income and corporate tax hikes, BC still remains competitive whereas under Horwath’s plan Ontario would have the highest corporate tax rate outside Atlantic Canada and highest top marginal rate in North America and one of the highest in the world. By contrast, BC’s corporate tax rate is the same as all other Western provinces and the top marginal rate is still the third lowest in Canada (behind on Alberta and Saskatchewan) although when compared to the US, only California is higher. If compared to other G7 countries, it’s still well below Japan and France, but a few points above Germany, UK, and Italy. Nonetheless, NDP’s policies have caused 35,000 private sector job losses in BC and BC’s growth is no longer leading the nation. With Horwath’s policies being more extreme, Ontario will be in big trouble if she wins.

          I do get the impression looking at polls though, it is more Doug Ford than the PC party or its policies dragging their numbers down while with the NDP, Horwath is more popular than her party or its policies.

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    • Cara says:

      Rumour has it that Wynne did this to keep some explosive information about Liberal financial misconduct the NDP were about to go public with private.

      Here’s the kicker. The NDP thinks it will help them. Liberal internal data shows it’s more likely to help Ford. More Liberal supporters list the OPC as their second choice.

      Something else to consider is that last week AI had the NDP already saturating the Liberal voters.

      With the exposed news that LeadNOW is helping the NDP………..it’s shaping up ok for the PCs IMO.

      Like

      • Miles Lunn says:

        Actually most polls I’ve seen show Liberals are more likely to have NDP as opposed to PCs as second choice. With Wynne moving so much to the left, I think most of the Blue Liberal vote already ditched the Liberals before the election was even called. I think the PCs biggest advantages are voter efficiency and their voters more likely to turnout. But the next few days will be key and quite interesting.

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        • Cara says:

          All this means Miles is that you’re reading different polling numbers than I am. I’m seeing the opposite.

          Wynne leaving has had no effect on either party. Any major shifting happened over a week ago. http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2850/june-2-2018/

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          • Miles Lunn says:

            No I was referring more to second choices, but you are right that the PCs are tied or slightly ahead and due to voter efficiency they can lose by as much as 2 points and still win a majority. That being said so far from what I am seeing, Wynne’s announcement has made no difference, but the next few days will be telling.

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  4. Liz J says:

    Headlines like “Orange Tide” are pretty scary.

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    • Miles Lunn says:

      Lets hope the orange tide is just them winning 40 some seats, not actually winning. It does seem the NDP has peaked and while hasn’t fallen back a lot, they’ve stopped growing which is a good sign, but the next few days will be key.

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  5. Cara says:

    Here’s a handy resource for following things along this week. https://www.electionprediction.org/2018_on/index.php

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  6. Anne in swON says:

    I have just learned that the Liberal candidate for my riding is Deb Matthews’ Executive assistant who lives in London. “No local residents were willing because “we’ve run third in the last two provincial and the last three federal elections,” said the Sarnia-Lambton Provincial Liberal Association president. Talk about desperation.

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  7. Anne in swON says:

    Ontario voters need to be aware of how these steel tariffs will impact the economy of our province before anybody decides to cast a vote for the NDP. Their costed budget projections will be in a total shambles as will their their whole platform. There’s a video here (via @bcbluecon) that should drive that fact home. http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/i-just-want-to-scream-trumps-metal-tariffs-send-corporate-canada-reeling-in-disbelief?utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#link_time=1528125626

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    • Cara says:

      Here’s something else to consider. “Steve Gilchrist
      17 hrs ·

      Who can you trust, during an election? I would argue the Chief Election Officer, given his sworn neutrality, might be the top of the list. So his advertisement, today, as required by the Taxpayer Protection Act (one of the accountability laws brought in by the last PC government) should be VERY sobering to anyone considering voting NDP or Liberal. They were required to list all the tax increases and, if you want to see the full magnitude of how the NDP will increase taxes on cars, on individuals, on small businesses and, you’ll love this, a Housing Speculation Tax of $20 per $1,000 in assessed value. That’s another $16,000 on a home valued at $800,000. Don’t be blinded by the dishonest NDP attack ads – they are simply skirting around the fact that they have exactly the same tax and spend agenda they had under Bob Rae. Ontario quite simply can’t handle higher tax rates and higher prices for our goods and services! Click this link to the “Taxpayer Protection Act” to see the full, depressing list of new NDP and LIberal taxes!”

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  8. Miles Lunn says:

    Not happy about the bombshell dropped today. While its tough to know the impact I fear Renata Ford might have just handed the election to the NDP. If the election were 10 days away, there would be time to recover much like the 407 data breach, but with 3 days that is cutting it short. Nonetheless we shall see what happens. The PCs are in majority territory now, but razor thin so not much room for error. I like many just want this to be over, we’ve seen enough. Hopefully a PC majority but whatever just get this done with so we can move on and deal with whatever comes.

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    • Cara says:

      Ford put out a pretty clear statement earlier today. Since then though this has been uncovered “Retweeted SeánO’SheaGLOBALTV (@ConsumerSOS):

      BROWN CONNECTION The law firm suing Doug Ford for $16.5 million, Aird&Berlis, also employs former PC Leader Patrick Brown’s sister, Fiona Brown. She was made a partner there on January 30 of this year. #onpoli #Lawyers https://t.co/9IGJhNZmym

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      • Miles Lunn says:

        Yeah looks fishy. Hopefully that doesn’t result in the NDP winning, but with less than 70 hours left who knows how the public will respond. To be fair a few commenters including some who are not conservatives suggested that most people’s decisions are baked in so will probably have no impact. I think the polls on June 6th will be telling. My guess is it will have a minor impact, but probably not much but perhaps instead of winning 70 seats might mean only winning 65 seats, but we shall see. Certainly the timing looks odd as usually you only release something 3 days before an election if you want to cause maximum damage, not out of coincidence.

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        • Cara says:

          IMO how Ford handles the next two days is really important. So far, by putting out a clear statement on this issue right away he did the right thing.

          Also, in an odd way I think this might in fact help him because the usual suspects (MSM and the left) are just salivating over this. Their contempt for Ford obvious. So much so I can see many sympathizing with Ford on this because it normalizes him somewhat. Who hasn’t had issues with family like this? He and the Ford’s are just as mired in issues as many families.

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          • Cara says:

            Here’s the video from Ford’s just ended press availability. His responses to the media about the Renata issue is perfect. Genuine, soft and he hits exactly the right points IMO.

            Watch and you be the judge.

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          • joannebly says:

            I was watching it live and thought the same thing. Very genuine.

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  9. Liz J says:

    Anyone in politics or media taking advantage of this development within the ford family are pure scum, can’t think of another adjective. I would also include snide remarks.

    Ontario voters have but one smart choice for the common good of this province. Think about what a “sanctuary” province would do to our health care. What’s going to happen to long term care already in crisis?

    Like

    • Cara says:

      I find it very rich indeed that the MSM and opponents of Ford are all of a sudden concerned about Rob Ford’s family. That, to stinks of hypocrisy.

      Doug’s mother has apparently made a statement to the Star supporting her son and being disappointed in the tactlessness of Renata’s “bombshell” that the MSM are only too glad to extend as far as they can to discredit. Doug.

      In an odd way, this may just backfire on the MSM and the opponents. It may be doing so already. It makes Doug even more relatable. His family has it’s issues too….just like many others in Ontario.

      Like

  10. Cara says:

    Latest Poll Tracker taken after this blew up shows us something interesting. Could it be that Renatagate is working to Ford’s advantage? It’s not hurting so far. https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/onvotes/poll-tracker/

    Like

    • FWIW AI prediction is 74 PC 49 NDP 1 OLP. Reaction to revelation of Ford largely negative but still gained a seat. Mind you all the negative reactions I’ve seen have been from people who hate Ford and wouldn’t vote PC anyways. Frank Graves at Ekos also tweeted no movement yet when Mainstreet is releasing their final poll tomorrow so good hints we are on track to win a majority, but still be a bit nervous until the results come in.

      Like

  11. Liz J says:

    Are there no laws preventing foreign funded activist groups from interfering in our elections? If the NDP are accepting this kind of “help” that should be a red flag to all voters who care about our democratic process.

    Like

  12. Just arrived in Toronto (I am here for three days before going to Europe). Heard a Liberal ad attacking both parties and now a PC ad both sound good. Unlike earlier I actually I am hoping the Liberals gain in the polls as every vote they gain is likely at the expense of the NDP and they are too far behind to win.

    Like

    • joannebly says:

      Ah so you’re right in the centre of the storm now Miles! Well yes I am finding myself cheering on the Liberals now too. lol! At least I don’t cringe any more when I see a Liberal sign.

      Have a great trip.

      Like

  13. Liz J says:

    Wynne just couldn’t pass up the chance to comment on Ford’s family matters. There are times in politics when it’s helpful to show a bit of class but apparently she can’t help herself.
    We’ve had a little too much of her undivided attention as premier, it has us in the worst mess in history across the board.

    Say goodbye and good night Kathleen, you have already conceded, we don’t need your opinion.

    Like

  14. joannebly says:

    So this morning I checked my mailbox and there was a flyer from “Can’t Afford Ford” saying “Rob Ford’s widow sues Doug Ford for depriving her children of support.” And then some June 4 excerpts from the Toronto Star. This is a high quality flyer which makes me wonder first of all, is this a registered third party? Also, how did they get that printed and delivered so quickly? Did they know ahead of time that the Star would publish this info?

    Like

    • Liz J says:

      Don’t like to say it but this campaign is starting to look like the US election. The opponents of Ford, media included, are going into the depths of depravity to keep Ford from winning.
      Just have to hope the people of this province see through it all and inform themselves and show the dirty tricksters and media who decides who governs.

      Like

      • joannebly says:

        Liz, yes dirty tricks for sure. Kevin Donovan of the Star was just on CP24. He said they were alerted to this story by an anonymous source on the weekend. And the Can’t Afford Ford site seems to be linked to the NDP. Very suspicious.

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        • Cara says:

          The clueless Star+CBC made Doug Ford into a sympathetic character with their political smear of Ford+his family over the bitter, vengeful Renata Ford fake litigation. Horwath shows her true colors as a low life politician who crossed the line when she criticized Ford for having a troubled+crazy sister in law. This will be Horwath’s last election too. Bye, bye, Andrea, you are a three time loser. Over night the tick is UP for Ford. This has helped, not hurt him one bit.
          AND the number of “too close to calls” went down by two. One flip I noticed was in Mississauga-Lakeshore where the Libs. Sousa was predicted to win. That’s flipped PC today. Several more flipped as well.

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    • Miles Lunn says:

      No doubt the left plays dirty tricks and I always expected the party for this reason to drop about 5% from whatever it started the campaign with which is what happened exactly. I just didn’t expect the non-PC vote to align as heavily, but it seems nowadays you have a lot of progressives who are free agents and their only goal is to stop conservatives so they will swing behind whichever party looks most likely to achieve this.

      How does Kitchener area look to be shaping up? I am thinking NDP will hold Waterloo and unfortunately win Kitchener Centre (It is an urban left leaning riding so you need strong splits on the left for the Tories to win like you had federally in 2008 and 2011). Kitchener South-Hespeler and Cambridge are more suburban so I think the PC’s chances are better there but should be close either way. I think Kitchener-Conestoga they should win due to the strong rural presence. I expect the 519 area code to be largely a wash for the PCs, but in the 905, 416, and 613, I think they will make gains there as Liberals haven’t imploded as badly in those area codes so better splits. I believe both the NDP and PCs will get over 40% in the 519 area code and Liberals probably low teens, maybe even single digits. For the Liberals, I don’t think they will win a single seat outside of three cities: Toronto, Ottawa, and Thunder Bay (In the North people vote more based on local candidate rather than party so popularity of MPPs might help there) and even in Toronto and Ottawa I expect it to be mostly NDP in the central parts, while mostly PC in the suburbs.

      Like

      • joannebly says:

        Miles, I think your analysis of the 519 is exactly as I am seeing it. But if Kitchener Centre goes orange and the Tories win government, then it will defy the normal ‘bellwhether’ moniker which would be unusual.

        Like

        • Miles Lunn says:

          I think in a Liberal-PC race, Kitchener Centre would go with the government but in an NDP-PC race things change a bit. Case in point in BC where I live, Kamloops provincially almost always goes for the government where you have a battle between NDP and a pro free enterprise coalition but federally seldom goes with the government due to the three way nature.

          As for our other contributors, here are my thoughts on what will happen assuming I am guessing correctly. Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke will be an easy PC win. In Ottawa I think PCs will easily hold Carleton, Kanata-Carleton, and Nepean. They should pick up both Orleans and Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, while have a slight edge in Ottawa West-Nepean which is surprisingly a three way race. Ottawa South will probably be a three way race, Ottawa-Vanier one of the few that stays Liberal, while Ottawa Centre flips to the NDP. Sarnia-Lambton, I think the PCs have a slight edge, but both parties should get over 40%, but PCs probably high 40s and NDP low 40s. For Scarborough, PCs should win Scarborough North and Scarborough-Agincourt. Scarborough Centre and Scarborough-Guildwood are three way races while Scarborough-Rouge-Park and Scarborough Southwest should be tight NDP-PC battles. If you look at the 2011 federal results in Scarborough and consider NDP is polling much higher, you would think they would win all of them except Scarborough-Agincourt. But at the same time Doug Ford municipally got over 50% in all of them except Scarborough Southwest so I think Ford as leader will actually help in this part of the province unlike others.

          In Southwestern Ontario, I think you have a strong urban/rural split. NDP probably 40 points ahead in Windsor, 20 points ahead in London, while only 5-10 points ahead in Kitchener-Waterloo although NDP strongest near the university and central parts, while suburbs more competitive and rural parts solidly PC. Elsewhere mixed urban-rural ridings like Brantford-Brant, Chatham-Kent-Leamington, and Sarnia-Lambton are ones to watch. I think both NDP and PCs will get over 40% in those three and Liberals lucky if they can get over 10%. The remaining rural ridings should be easy PC wins in most cases north of 50%. Off course these are just predictions and I will admit riding predictions is somewhat a crapshot.

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  15. Anne in swON says:

    LeadNow must have Sarnia-Lambton in its sights. I got my first ever phone call from the NDP! Since I didn’t pick up they left a message asking whether I could be counted upon to support Andrea Horwath. I don’t remember the NDP ever winning this riding but I moved away for about 20 years so it’s possible. Heaven help us if they get in here.

    Like

    • Miles Lunn says:

      Sarnia-Lambton is likely to be close due to the implosion of the Liberals who will probably get in single digits. Nonetheless as long as the PC’s stay north of 45% they should be fine. I suspect the NDP will narrowly win Sarnia, but the rest of the riding should go heavily PC. I think the NDP will get over 40% there for the simple reason PC support rarely goes much over 50% (It was 52% in 2011 federally for example). In addition incumbency advantage helps. But even if it is one of the few PC seats lost, their gains in the GTA and Eastern Ontario will more than offset any seat losses.

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  16. Miles Lunn says:

    Since my hotel has a business centre, I plan to do a recap on my blog on the morning of June 8th as my flight to Vienna isn’t until the evening (European flights are always evening since they go overnight). In terms of a few thoughts. Based on the few tweets I’ve seen from AI, Mainstreet research, and Ekos research it looks like there has been no major shifts in the polls. This means in popular vote it will be a dogfight, maybe slight PC edge but could go either way. But due to efficiency of PC vote, a PC majority is definitely the most likely outcome although not certain by any means. If the NDP forms government it will most likely be a minority. To get a majority they would need to pull an inside straight. I would have never considered this, but if I still lived in Fort York-Spadina (my old riding), I might have been tempted to go Liberal now that is clear they will lose as that riding is one of the least PC friendly in the province so in many ways between NDP and Liberals whichever party is least likely to form government, I am almost tempted to support just to reduce the chance of a majority.

    That being said, I don’t live there and in the vast majority of ridings the top 2 will be PC and NDP so in most places voting PC makes by far the most sense if you want to stop the NDP, plus they are the party with the best platform. I think if the PCs win, they should focus on their popular policies like cutting gas prices as Doug Ford is entering with a very low approval rating and usually if you want to make tough decisions you need to build up some political capital which he lacks. So I agree making cuts to balance the budget is important, but probably best to start in the second year rather than first after building up some political capital. Also with a strong team, Ford should give his ministers as much leeway as possible to set the agenda in their department, his main role is to make sure they are all going in the same direction and not contradicting each other.

    If in the unfortunate event the NDP wins, there are still some positives. Right now the PC caucus is overwhelmingly rural, but that will change as the party is poised to make big gains in the 905 belt and also win seats in the 416 for the first time since 1999. And with the NDP’s policies being quite radical, I suspect much like last time if they win, they will suffer a humilating defeat in 2022 and won’t come back for another generation. Still while I think the NDP is going to have a great night by historical standards, I think it looks like they will come up a bit short. That being said if they win the popular vote but PCs get a majority, I worry this could make calls for PR stronger and will almost ensure in BC, the PR side wins this fall so my hope is PCs not only win a majority, but also win the popular vote too. If they like Mainstreet’s last poll win by 5 points and the final numbers are say 40% to 35% for NDP that would be ideal.

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  17. Anne in swON says:

    OT – I can’t help but feel disappointed with Andrew Scheer’s continued support for supply management of the Canadian dairy industry. That’s why I’ll continue to purchase cheese, butter and milk for half the price in the US. https://media.conservative.ca/en/statements/andrew-scheer-justin-trudeau-must-be-clear-about-supply-management

    Like

  18. Anne in swON says:

    The latest EKOS poll shows PC gains despite the impending lawsuit announcement. Whoda thunk it! Popular vote PC 39.1 NDP 35.1 LPO 18.9 Seat projections: PC 67 -75 NDP 41 -49 LPO 5 -10 “The election of this conservative government is based on a different constituency than earlier conservative governments. It is based on a new ‘ordered populism’ that led to both Brexit and the election of Donald Trump. This is something that we have seen vividly expressed in Ontario for the last year.” The write-up is definitely worth reading. http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2018/06/ekos-predicts-pc-majority/

    Like

    • Ipsos also shows them ahead and while Pollara shows them tied, the underlying look good. Mainstreet’s pay walled also look good but cannot give them out exactly other than to say they have predicted a PC Majority as well. If anything I feel a lot better about our chances today than yesterday. Off course it ain’t over until it’s over but I think Ford will win it. Oddly enough I’ve talked to a few. The cab drivers I’ve had who were all immigrants planned or did vote for Ford. On the other hand the people at the restaurants and bars were terrified of him, but being millennials in downtown Toronto that is probably to be expected. I think much like with Trump, Brexit, last Italian election and last British, the urban cores will go massively for parties on the left, but the suburbs and rural areas will go PC. It seems increasingly people in downtown cores live in their own bubbles and if they don’t find a way to connect better with rural and suburban voters, this will happen more often, which off course I am fine with.

      Like

    • Cara says:

      Advance Symbolics and Abacus say majority PCs.

      Like

      • It seems pretty much every poll today shows PC’s ahead so I feel a lot more confident now about a PC majority than 24 hours ago. It seems that a lot of the undecided were early PC supporters but disliked Ford so moved to the undecided column, but have since returned home. NDP will still likely have their second best showing ever, but a strong second is not a win and allows them to make lots of noise in the legislature but not wreak havoc on the province.

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  19. Liz J says:

    Most desperate to win his seat appears to be Ottawa South Liberal John Fraser. He has signs in black and signs in white begging people to vote for him, forget the party! If he wins, and that’s not looking likely, he has said internal polls show PC candidate ahead so he’s begging.
    does this mean he’s running as an independent by default? Pathetic, people have to see that kind of desperation is not a person for the people, it’s all about him.

    Like

    • Cara says:

      That tells me he’s losing his riding.
      It’s going to be a good day for the PCs if the numbers hold.
      Tomorrow will be just another day, BUT we’ll be knowing that the party that CAN eventually get Ontario’s fiscal house in order will be in power.

      Like

      • Liz J says:

        Kate over at SDA has picked up on Fraser’s signage too with thread title “Let’s play name that party”.

        Like

      • Miles Lunn says:

        He might, the poll I’ve seen shows a three way race but PCs in first, and NDP and Liberals battling for second. This was also taken when PCs and NDP were tied overall, not since the PCs opened up a slight lead. I think any of the three parties can win here, but could see the PCs winning this, which is a huge as this is normally a safe Liberal riding. Lets remember this is Dalton McGuinty’s old riding so a major blow if the Liberals lose this one. Of the Ottawa ridings, Ottawa-Vanier is the only one I think the Liberals are likely to hold and its probably one of if not the safest Liberal riding in Ontario.

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      • Miles Lunn says:

        I suspect the TSX will go up tomorrow if Ford wins as expected. If Horwath pulls an offset which looks less likely barring a polling error, expect a big decline of the TSX. That being said the NDP surge this time unlike Alberta 2015 and federally in Quebec in 2011 happened in the middle of the campaign rather than near the end like those two so time to put them under a microscope whereas when it happens late in the campaign you cannot do that. In addition in both of those cases, NDP had double digit leads on e-day, not trailing by a few points. In fact in 2011 nationally, most polls only showed the Tories around 5 points ahead, not the 9 they actually got. In addition most polls yesterday asides Forum were rolling ones suggesting the PCs did better on June 6th than the earlier two days from what I’ve seen.

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  20. Cara says:

    I’m with Brian Lilley, Advanced Symbolics and Abacus. For the reasons Brian suggests and which I’ve posted here this past week.
    http://brianlilley.com/my-ontario-election-predictions/

    Like

    • Miles Lunn says:

      I generally agree. In terms of possibilities I see the following three.

      PC Majority: This is by far the most likely as it could be anything from only 63 seats to as high as 80 seats and the PCs more or less have 50-55 seats locked up, so just picking up a quarter of the one’s they are competitive in puts them over the line.

      Minority Government: This would probably mean the Liberals outperform seat wise and you get more strategic voting than expected. If NDP wins most seats, premier Horwath, if PCs win most, expect a lot of drama over the next month on who becomes premier. Now if PCs win 62 seats, then Ford becomes premier as the PCs can simply refuse to put up a speaker or at least if they do make sure he/she resigns immediately if the NDP/Liberals try to pull off some arrangment.

      NDP Majority: This is still possible, but would more or less require them pulling an inside straight. They need the undecided to break heavily for them as well as soft liberals. They also need the shifts to be in the exact right places so it still is mathematically possible but it requires a lot of things falling into place thus why unlikely.

      That being said Brian Lilley is incorrect somewhat about age gap. I am seeing its more a gender than age gap. Yes NDP ahead amongst millennials, but PCs are still surprisingly competitive amongst them and in fact will probably win the male millennial vote. Amongst seniors, PCs have lead, but it’s only 5-10 points, so hardly a blowout. Otherwise its not the massive age gap you saw in the last British election.

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  21. Anne in swON says:

    EKOS has their seat projection up today with riding by riding predictions. http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2018/06/ekos-seat-projection-2/

    Like

  22. Anne in swON says:

    The recent revelation of Justin’s groping, handling or whatever it was brought to mind a portion of Laura Stone’s March 2015 interview with Sophie Gregoire Trudeau: “Following the release of his memoir last fall, Trudeau was asked during a CBC interview about extramarital affairs, which he denied.

    “Ha! Really?” Grégoire-Trudeau says.

    “Ask if whatever happened in our lives – I’m not saying it did or didn’t – as if we would answer that.” https://globalnews.ca/news/1897750/a-family-affair-canadas-next-first-lady-lunch-with-sophie-gregoire-trudeau/

    Like

  23. Liz J says:

    If Ontario votes for an NDP government given the situation left by Wynne Liberals there really is a huge stupidity factor in this province.

    Like

  24. joannebly says:

    Such an exciting night! I found the voting process very smooth. No waiting at all and the electronic reader seemed to work well. Hoping for great things tonight!!

    Like

  25. Miles Lunn says:

    Great news PCs win a majority. I am so happy. As I always did when I lived in Toronto before my trips to Europe, I will go to one of my favorite bars and celebrate this win. CBC has also called it too. As for my criticisms, it looks like Ford proved my wrong. I also think the NDP surge thankfully happened mid campaign rather than late campaign unlike federally 2011 and Alberta 2015 thus why we got the results we wanted. Now next stop is in a year to defeat Notley, then Trudeau, and hopefully whenever BC has their election defeat Horgan.

    Like

  26. Greg says:

    I realize the green leader is somewhat a first, but still, 1 seat in a protest vote. I can’t believe the air time he received. Then again, May got a lot of air time until even the media realized how nutty she was.

    Like

  27. Greg says:

    A couple of late nail biters but I was pleased overall with local results (sorry Joanne). Some polls were predicting an NDP sweep in KW Cambridge, but the PCs dominated instead.

    Like

    • joannebly says:

      Greg, I am ok. Things could have been much worse! 😉

      Like

      • Miles Lunn says:

        No worries, it was a good result overall. And I believe in Anne in SW ON’s riding was one the media was saying the NDP had a good shot at and in the end it wasn’t even close. Your riding is probably too urban centric, but at the end of the day its the suburbs who decide the winner whether it be Ottawa, GTA, or KW area they went PC thus why we won.

        Like

        • Anne in swON says:

          There were loads of PC lawn signs in my riding, far outnumbering NDP signs. Three or four NDP signs on one property doesn’t count as increased support. No LPC signs to speak of. Proof you can’t fool all of the people all of the time. Ontario voters have spoken loudly but it’s going to be a long road back from the edge of the cliff.

          Like

  28. Liz J says:

    The results in this election have exceeded our wildest dreams! We were hearing the same old stuff from pollsters…too close to call, NDP and PC’s running neck and neck etc.
    Let the cleanup begin, let it spread across the country.

    Like

    • Miles Lunn says:

      Actually the pollsters that stayed in the field until the end got it right. I think what happened is many anti-Ford PCs were undecided, but when push came to shove they swung behind the PCs to keep the NDP out. I was quite worried about the NDP surge, but unlike Alberta 2015, the surge happened mid campaign not near the end so we were able to put them under a microscope and scare away centrist voters from voting for them. Also as for left wing vote splitting, here is a fun fact, both the PCs and NDP saw their vote go up by 9% each so it appears the Liberal implosion benefitted both equally. The only difference was the timing as Blue Liberals I think moved over to the PCs over a year ago whereas the progressive wing did so during the campaign. And contrary to what many pundits say, I actually think getting rid of the Liberal party would result in its votes splitting fairly equally and since the PCs have a larger base than NDP, works in our favour. That is why Harper wanted this so much as he knew it would mean much like BC centre-right governments 80% of the time with the odd NDP once every generation.

      Like

  29. Anne in swON says:

    Two immediate takeaways from the Ontario election:
    1 – Life is not all about gender or the new feminism.
    2 – Taxpayers can’t be bought with their own money.

    Like

  30. Greg says:

    Now the real battle begins. CBC, Global, CTV, Torstar, MacLeans, 75% of Natpo will all be all in, all the time trying to make Ford a single term premier. 80% of the above will spend every waking moment and 90% of their dream time thinking of ways to make him resign. We all need to watch and push back

    Like

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