Well the Ontario election of 2018 has officially started! Of course Wynne has been campaigning on taxpayer dime the last few months with all her spending announcements, so campaign costs will now have to come out of Liberal coffers.
So how are you feeling right now? Are you already locked in or still unsure? And to those outside Ontario, which party or leader do you feel would benefit the rest of Canada in terms of federal and interprovincial dynamics?
I suspect many Ontarians will end up having to hold their noses when voting on June 7 no matter whom they end up choosing.
Blue Like You2 
Agreed on much, I would certainly be holding up my nose if I still lived there. I voted in the last three elections, but have since moved back to Vancouver, but still follow Ontario politics closely. I would reluctantly support the Ford PCs. While much of the world beyond Canada’s borders tilts to the right, it seems the left clearly dominates pretty much all levels of government in Canada so it would be nice to change that, not make it worse which going NDP would. I am no fan of Doug Ford and originally said I would decline my ballot, but the stakes are too high so I would reluctantly support him. Electing either the Liberals or NDP would be bad for both Ontario and Canada.
As for PCs, Ford would get into some fights with Trudeau and its hard to say if that is a good thing or not. Would it weaken Trudeau or just embolden him and Ontario does have a tendency of voting opposites thus history says a PC win in Ontario makes a Liberal win in 2019 more likely. I expect Atlantic Canada and Quebec to go Liberal, Prairies to go Tory, BC could go for any of the three parties, so it comes down to who wins Ontario.
My main beef with Ford is not that he supported Trump or is too right wing. He has actually done a good job of pivoting to the centre and I am not like some scared at all he will be too extreme as I don’t think he will be. My bigger concern is more his lack of knowledge as he seems to be loose with the facts a lot and I don’t think that is a good thing. Nonetheless he has many strong candidates so my hope is if he wins he puts together a strong cabinet and gives them as much leeway as possible and just sets the general direction, doesn’t try to micromanage. Micromanaging worked for Harper as he was a policy wonk and knew everything inside out and backwards; Ford is not like that. In many ways he is more like Trudeau on knowledge of government files and we are seeing with Trudeau how incompetent he is that is why it will be important for Ford to have strong cabinet ministers and luckily unlike Trudeau he has a stronger roster of candidates running.
LikeLike
I had some Green Party door knockers at my home last night already. Hopefully they will draw a few voters away from the liberals and NDP
LikeLike
Yes good point!
LikeLike
They just might. Anything’s possible. The rules of campaigns have changed so much that the unconventional is becoming very popular. Ford’s already doing a few things differently. I feel better now than I felt with Patrick Brown, I can tell you that much. I will not be staying home on election day.
LikeLike
“I will not be staying home on election day.”
I hope all conservatives follow your example!
LikeLiked by 1 person
I wonder how many Ontario voters are aware that the Ontario NDP platform on page 11 contains these seven words: “We will declare Ontario a Sanctuary Province.” Andrea Horvath needs to explain how this largesse will be funded. https://www.ontariondp.ca/sites/default/files/VisionDoc-ENG-111517.pdf
LikeLike
Oh that’s an interesting item alright. Definitely requires some explanation.
LikeLike
Just watching on the Agenda a discussion with an Artificial Intelligence firm which was correctly able to predict Brexit and Trump win as well as called a Liberal majority in 2015 a full month out when most polls showed a three way race. Right now they show Ford on track for a majority, but aren’t quite ready to call it. Nonetheless they did show that issues like taxes and deficits are big as opposed to more social spending so interesting. Off course campaigns matter and its far from a foregone conclusion. Also if a minority someone needs to press Horwath if she would prop up Wynne and if she wavers hit her there and it seems most want Wynne and the Liberals gone which with Ford PC’s you will definitely get whereas by voting Howarth NDP not necessarily.
LikeLike
Interesting about the Agenda segment.
And really good point about possibly still getting Wynne in a minority government, Miles! Yes I hope reporters question her on that for sure!
LikeLike
I watched that too Myles. The company is called Advanced Symbolics Inc. and in fact the woman being interviewed said that they would know within a week’s time how this election would turn out based on nothing more than what’s out there right now via social media, news, data gathering. It’s really quite amazing. It was also suggested that going the AI route is far superior to polling firms because there is NO bias and the AI gathering of information has a much broader reach than do polls.
LikeLike
Also interesting the issues people were talking about seemed quite favourable to the PCs, but off course as mentioned some are just tuning in thus why they haven’t made a call. I agree the AI route may become the future especially if they keep on getting their predictions right. One that I would have liked to have seen them do is the BC election in 2013 as that was probably the biggest pollster mess up I can think of.
LikeLike
This is the principled leadership we gave up for a pretty face, a pair of socks and the promise of a joint: “Former Canadian prime minister Stephen Harper has added his name to a full-page ad in the New York Times with a message to U.S. President Donald Trump: “You are right about Iran.”
The ad, titled “Mr. President, you are right about Iran” in bold letters, is signed by Harper, former Australian prime minister John Howard, Nobel Peace Prize winner and former Northern Ireland prime minister William Trimble, and other former politicians and writers, including John Baird, former Canadian foreign affairs minister.” http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/harper-iran-trump-ad-1.4656526
LikeLike
Yes, Trump is right about Iran. Iran cannot be trusted, ever. They will continue to do what they’ve been doing, nothing will change.
LikeLike
I am skeptical on this and one should note that both UK and Australia who have conservative governments opposed Trump’s decision. I don’t trust Iran, but unlike a lot of conservatives I don’t trust the US either (whether it is a Democrat or Republican) so I would rather the US try to renegotiate than pull out. Sure Iran cannot be trusted, but better to contain them. I also think Iran is most a threat to the MIddle East as opposed to global as I don’t believe they would use nuclear weapons on the west but might on their neighbours as you do have strong religious divides. They hate Israel so definitely a danger there and the Shias (which Iran is) and Sunnis (which Saudi Arabia is) seem to hate each other despite both being extreme.
Otherwise I think as a conservative one could come down on either side as it’s important to note Austria, Australia, Spain, and UK all have Conservative governments too and all condemned Trump’s decision. I guess my skepticism with the US in the Middle East goes back to the Iraq war, which I regrettably supported at the time, but I am glad Chretien kept us out so I’ve sort of become I strong critic of US involvement in the Middle East considering whenever they intervene unilaterally it seems to just make things worse. Now I am all for increased inspections followed by tough sanctions for non-compliance no disagreement there, but that is why I say better to renegotiate than walk away.
LikeLike
Actually just heard Erin O’Toole has stated the Conservatives think this can be used as an opportunity to negotiate a better deal, but he stopped short of endorsing Trump. I endorse O’Toole’s position not Harper’s.
LikeLike
Agree with you Anne! It’s what real leadership and confidence looks like.
FYI, Andrew Scheer has a pretty good ad that’s set to debut in Quebec ahead of the expected by-election there. Looks like the CPC are taking full advantage of the NDP collapse.
LikeLike
Campaign has just started and we have the Liberals already yakking about two tier health care and Mike Harris who has been out of politics for some 16 years.
How pathetic can they get? They’re obviously desperate using that for ammunition.
LikeLike
At this point I am actually not too worried about the Liberals, I think they are finished. It is the NDP who worries me as I believe they could win if you look at the polls and room for growth. There is still time but I think the PCs (unless their internal polls are way different than public ones) need to hit the NDP hard who have a pie in the sky platform that is worse than the Liberals. I am fine if the NDP forms the official opposition but we cannot let them win outright.
LikeLike
Typical and desperate as you suggest. News this morning that the EFTO bosses have given their teachers their marching orders to vote NDP. So, looks like the unions are switching sides. Hopefully individual teachers will not listen to their union bosses and use their heads to do the right thing. It was individual teachers who helped put Mike Harris into two majorities.
LikeLike
I suspect most teachers will go NDP or Liberals. Asides from maybe physicians I suspect most public sector unions will vote for parties on the left. Where the PCs have lots of potential is private sector unions as many of them want jobs and I could see the PCs coming first amongst those in private sector unions. If the PCs win big amongst those working in the private sector, they will take the election even if the public sector goes massively against them. I don’t believe public sector workers have ever voted conservative anywhere yet it doesn’t prevent conservatives from winning.
LikeLike
We shouldn’t have to hold our noses to vote against the Wynne government. This province is loaded down in debt and is not an affordable province to live in.
LikeLike
The UK and Australia have conservative governments which, in reality, are conservative in name only. Chronic appeasement is not a strength. There isn’t a backbone among them. As for increased inspections in Iran? The International Atomic Energy Agency under the corrupt United Nations is tasked with monitoring Iran’s nuclear facilities but military sites are off-limits. However, “the 2015 deal it signed with the United States and five other world powers allows inspectors to gain limited access to any site where illicit nuclear activity is suspected.” There are still sites where access is being denied eg. Parchin. Some deal! Canada stands to lose by standing with the gullible and against the US. I stand by Stephen Harper.
LikeLike
I would still say Australia and UK have Conservative governments although I guess it depends how you define conservatism. I have always been more of a progressive conservative than Reformer if you go back to pre-merger and you could say Australia and UK have more moderate conservative governments while US more ideological.
For me, I have negative view of the United States so anything to keep them under control I generally like as I’ve seen them far too much bully other countries and do bad things so in foreign policy I like us to chart our own path and then doesn’t mean following Europe, it means taking our own. I think Harper made a big mistake in supporting the Iraq War in 2003, which BTW I also mistakenly supported but since then I’ve learned not to trust the US and thus if the US is on its own, I generally like Canada to stay as far away as possible, which ironically in the Iraq War they at least had support of many other countries. If Iran were ever stupid enough to use a nuke, they would be wiped off the map by the US so I am not too worried about them using it, I think they are more creating one as they know no country will attack them if they have one. I do agree though there is a risk Iran could attack Israel and that is where I am somewhat sympathetic as I am quite pro-Israel but generally anti-US, at least when it comes to foreign policy. I do admire the innovation and entrepreneurship the US has, but I don’t like their aggressive foreign policy, I feel its bad for us as a small country.
LikeLike
I see the Liberals are already attacking the NDP so must be worried about falling to third place. Despite the fact I find it worrisome how well the NDP is doing in the polls, it probably would do more harm attacking them than not so let the Liberals and NDP fight it out and Ford should focus on looking premier like and holding onto his support. In particular he should find a way to do better amongst females which he is struggling with. In addition most of the polls show the NDP doing well due to strong millennial support but they often don’t vote and are quite volatile. Interestingly enough the AI firm mentioned above actually shows millennials leaning PC in contrast with the polls which is possible as they are the toughest to poll.
LikeLike
Check it out. Wynne’s calling in Justin Trudeau’s “fixer” to try and turn the tide for her and her party. http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/wynne-polls-astravas-election-1.4657674
LikeLike
She’s running scared, pulling out all the stops, whatever you call it she’s in full desperation mode.
LikeLike
Wow! THIS coming from Don Martin! https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/don-martin-blog/don-martin-trudeau-apology-tour-dilutes-the-value-of-saying-sorry-1.3924567
LikeLiked by 1 person
Yes I watched that last night at the end of Power Play. He nailed it on so many levels!
LikeLiked by 1 person
I was at a KW Chamber of Commerce event yesterday focusing on Manufacturing, innovation and competitiveness. From the speakers the main concerns were high energy prices, the US and Canada tax changes, and a fairly recent higher difficulty in getting good people. Most people equated the difficulty in getting talent to the tax changes. Trumps lower corporate taxes have negated any advantage we had, and US tech companies are hiring recent grads from here straight out of school for much more than someone with experience can get in Ontario. The general feeling in the room was that we are seeing a new brain drain. Everyone I saw was nodding their heads about these issues, and several I talked to were openly hoping for regime change in Ontario and federally.
LikeLike
Very interesting Greg. It certainly is very bad for Ontario to have left-wing governments both federally and provincially. Actually it’s bad for the whole country.
LikeLike
To make matters worse most governments at all levels in Canada are left wing. Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and maybe Quebec are the only centre-right ones we have. Nova Scotia, PEI, Newfoundland, and Yukon do seem a bit more centrist, sort of Chretien/Martin type Liberals but I think when you have a left wing at one level you need a right wing to balance it out. I am pretty confident the Liberals are toast. I just hope the NDP doesn’t take this. I still think PCs are favoured, but they need to watch over their shoulders carefully.
LikeLike
Yes and that may explain both Wynne and Ford going after Horwath in today’s northern debate.
Or at least Ford.
LikeLike
Here’s quite the eye-opener re: the lengths that OPSEU will go to to get their preferred candidate elected. https://publicservicesfoundation.ca/content/vote-getters
LikeLike
Well hopefully there will be some special interest groups on the right that will get as organized as that, although I doubt it.
Still trying to figure out about the filter problems, Cara. But I try to rescue your comments as soon as I check in. đŸ˜‰
LikeLike
They are not the only ones. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/british-columbia/article-signs-purchased-by-greens-to-help-liberal-candidate-in-bc-led-to/?cmpid=rss But no punishment to speak of. Go figure.
LikeLike
Joanne, here’s a group I think we can all get behind. Their focus is to hold elected officials to account. I don’t think it’s specifically Conservative (with a capital C) but it speaks to conservatives.
“We are volunteers who are concerned that government leaders, often influenced by union bosses, are making decisions that drive up taxes, debt and deficits.
This makes it harder for Canadians to get ahead and for businesses to create jobs. Our President Catherine Swift is available for media interviews and we continue to share insights on social media.
Please get the facts. Hold your local politicians accountable.”
http://www.workingcanadians.ca/about-us/
There’s another group that has gained a massive following in just a short time. https://www.facebook.com/OntarioProud/
Can we start listing other groups we come across in our internet travels. We have to start somewhere. In the last federal election ther were over 100 third party groups. The shocking fact is that only one was conservative.
LikeLike
Oh yes. Ontario Proud is gaining great ground. I follow both Ontario Proud and Working Canadians on Twitter. Hopefully there are others out there.
LikeLike
Article on the murky rules of third-party advertising: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/facebook-ads-political-advertising-1.4657728
LikeLiked by 1 person
The linked article states: “CBC News has been able to track many of the Facebook ads placed during that time in a Political Ad database being crowdsourced and compiled by ProPublica, CBC and other news organizations.” Didn’t the CBC ask readers to download an app developed by ProPublica so they could track people’s Facebook pages for political ads?
From ProPublica’s site: “In order to shine a light on political advertising on Facebook, ProPublica built a tool that allows Facebook users to automatically send us the political ads that were displayed on their News Feeds.”
I wonder how many people know that George Soros is connected to ProPublica and the media in a huge way. The following article was prepared by Media Research Center, an American media watchdog, and is well worth the read. https://www.mrc.org/commentary/soros-spends-over-48-million-funding-media-organizations How deep do Soros’ tentacles extend into Canadian media outlets? It’s a question well worth asking.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Well that’s interesting, Anne. The moral of the story is never, ever download an app for Facebook.
LikeLike
My riding doesn’t yet have a Liberal candidate nor a nomination date. There must be an awful lot of co-ooold feet. Check to see whether you are registered to vote. http://www.elections.on.ca/en/voting-in-ontario/voter-registration.html.
LikeLike
Noticed the Liberals are attacking the NDP more so their own internal polls must show them in trouble. As long as the NDP stays under 30% not too worried but cross the 30% mark and things become problematic. It looks like for the most part Ford is following the people’s guarantee minus the carbon tax so will be interested in what the fully costed platform says, which contrary to some reports there will be one. Contrary to what some may claim, typically fully costed platforms are released 10-20 days before the election so I think as long as he has it out by the second debate that is fine. It is better to roll things out gradually than at once.
On the immigrant community, people are making a mountain out of a mole hill. Probably should have not said it, but the reality is immigration greatly benefits the province but that doesn’t mean we accept everyone who wants to come. Unemployment is much higher in Northern Ontario than Southern Ontario so for skilled jobs with shortages like doctors, it makes sense, but for jobs where a Canadian is available its not unreasonable to put them first.
LikeLike
Nightmare thought for the day, Wynne and Horwath in a coalition.
LikeLike
That would be terrible.
LikeLike
Just saw a tweet from WK. He thinks Horvath has made a big error in not shutting down any thought of coalition. He said it’s a change election, and leaving the door open for Wynne does not equal change.
That means for any certainty of change you need to vote PC, thanks Warren!
LikeLike
I was out most of the morning but just came across this tweet by Lorrie Goldstein. So maybe Horwath listened to Kinsella? đŸ˜‰
LikeLike
She might still prop them up through a supply and confidence as the arrangement in BC and that in Ontario in 1985 were not formal coalitions, they were simple supply and confidence agreements so we can still hit the party on this and make it clear to voters that you want the Liberals gone, PCs are the only option.
LikeLike
Yes indeed. If you want real change there’s only one party to choose.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Hopefully it will scare more people to the PC’s. I also wonder if it might make strategic voting less desirable and keep the left vote split between them?
LikeLike
Sorry but I can’t believe that the NDP and Liberals aren’t already talking about forming a coalition. Remember in BC when the NDP denied a coalition with the Greens? This isn’t traditional politics any more. I believe they’ll do whatever they need to do to thwart the PCs. That’s how they roll.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Interesting on the coalition issue. I think this just might be what the PCs need to blunt the NDP surge. The reason I worried more about the NDP as while most PC voters are solid PC, there are a minority who are simply change voters so if the NDP grows enough they could move over and without those votes we lose our majority. The next 10 days will be crucial and if the NDP doesn’t move up and we hold our numbers, I think we will win the election, it becomes more will it be a majority or minority as a few points higher and we are talking about a landslide majority of 90+ seats but a few points less and we are in minority territory.
LikeLike
What Ford needs to do are two things IMO: 1) keep hammering at the NDP reminding folks that we never thought we’d get another government as bad as an NDP government until the Liberals. They are and always have been one and the same, 2) keep reminding people who are pressing him for his budget numbers that thanks to Wynne and her government the numbers can’t be believed now, so its impossible to offer any numbers beyond a ballpark until each and every internal audit is done and we know exactly what we have to work with.
LikeLike
Agreed and while the NDP surge is worrisome, at least its better it is happening now so I can be stopped than later. That being said as long as Tories stay north of 40% it will be tough to beat them. A more likely outcome if polls stay where they are is PC majority of around 70 seats, NDP opposition 40-50 seats and Liberals fall to single digits in seats. Still the NDP need to be portrayed as Liberals on steroids. Yes Andrea Horwath is the most likeable leader on a personal level, but being personally likeable doesn’t make one the best premier.
On a side note, if you want to get more detailed results and daily updates on poll numbers, you can subscribe to Mainstreet Research daily polling which is only $30. I did this, but since it is confidential I will not be posting anything I see unless they make it public, but at least you will get a better idea of whether it is a real threat or just looks like one.
LikeLike
I wouldn’t trust the Liberals and NDP, neither of them want the Conservatives in government. They would make some kind of arrangement to ensure a minority Conservative government would be unable to govern.
There is no option this election but one.
Horwath talking about making it a sanctuary province is pure madness.
LikeLiked by 1 person
For anyone who still believes there is no systemic bias against Conservatives this is a must read! http://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/rcmp-officer-asks-trudeau-to-look-into-secret-spying-allegations/
LikeLiked by 1 person
Ford promises to cut gas prices by 10 cents a litre. While not a policy I personally support, I think this is very smart politically. Will be a big hit in the 905 belt which is crucial to win and also might help push back against the NDP in Northern Ontario and Southwestern Ontario. I like that the PCs are trying to tie the NDP and Liberals together as Ford is not going to beat Horwath on who people would most like to have a beer with (In 2011, most preferred Layton over Harper on who to have a beer with), but he can beat her on having better policies as the Ipsos poll that showed NDP only five points behind also showed most want balanced budgets, lower taxes, and spending cuts as opposed to more spending so it seems NDP surge is more due to dislike of Liberals and dislike of Ford personally as opposed to embracing their policies. Otherwise Ford needs to make it about policy not person since if the former I think he will be favoured, but if the latter I think Horwath will be favoured.
LikeLike
Now that the Trudeau government has placed CBSA personnel at Roxham Road does that mean they’ve now declared this an official border crossing? Canadians need a better explanation. Meanwhile legal crossings can expect increasing backlogs.
LikeLike
Illegal crossings for Trudeau’s Irregulars, we must not call them illegals.
LikeLike
With the ON NDP rising in the polls it would be nice if someone hit them on their sanctuary province policy. I realize the PCs doing it will just make them a target as being intolerant, but nice if some third party goes after this. This is big as it means illegal immigrants get full access to social services. When I moved from BC to Ontario in 2006 (I moved back to BC in 2017), I had to wait 3 months before I could get an OHIP card and this is as a Canadian so it seems wrong that someone illegally in the country can access programs right away. Never mind if a legal immigrant, you have to wait until you are a landed immigrant before you can access any programs so even many legal immigrants might resent the idea of those who jump the queue getting quicker access. I am not saying if an illegal immigrant is sick or injured one should check their immigration status, but they shouldn’t be eligible for OHIP or other programs available to Ontario residence. Obviously if its an emergency like anyone they will get treated right away, but my understanding is a sanctuary policy means access to all programs Ontario residents have not just helping in an emergency.
That being said, as long as the PCs don’t do something really stupid or get caught in some scandal I think they are heavily favoured. If you dig deeper in the polling numbers, PCs are still competitive or ahead in all regions as well as amongst age groups have a double digit lead amongst those over 35 (who are more likely to vote) while tied or slightly behind amongst millennials (who are less likely to vote), still I think the OLP is toast, but an NDP win is possible albeit not probable at this point. I do think though Ford needs to do a better job of appealing to female voters as he has a big lead amongst male voters but is tied or slightly behind amongst females.
LikeLike
Ford should have women out campaigning with him. Or maybe he is and the media isn’t covering it?
LikeLike
He should have Christine Elliott and Caroline Mulroney with him at campaigns especially Elliott. With current numbers both should easily win their seats so they can help out this way.
LikeLike
Totally agree.
LikeLike
Great idea. How do we put a bug in his ear to do that?
LikeLike
Don’t Christine and Caroline have their own ridings to look after? I would expect their priorities to be those and not be on the road with Doug.
That said, the PC lead is evaporating thanks to the public service unions sliding over to the NDP.
LikeLike
Forgot to include this link. http://onpulse.ca/blog/entering-the-long-weekend-the-pc-lead-evaporates-as-ndp-momentum-builds
LikeLike
Scary stuff. It’s hardly a surprise for the unions to go to NDP. The media are starting to do their bit against Ford as well.
LikeLike
Another issue Ford should be talking about
https://pjmedia.com/trending/the-camp-of-the-saints-heads-for-the-great-white-north/
LikeLike
I am beginning to think choosing Ford was a mistake. Yes it’s too late to change but it seems personality not policy is driving poll numbers. Andrea Horwath is a very likeable person while Ford is quite polarizing; popular amongst base but rubs others the wrong way. What’s interesting is on policy, the PC direction not NDP is way more popular, but I feel personality not policy is driving things.
Ford should pivot this way and like McGuinty did in 2011 find a way of conveying that people may not like him and may like Horwath more but this election is about not who you want to have a beer with, it’s who has the best plan to govern the province. I also think of the 407 debacle, this needs to be dealt with fast much like the greenbelt. Policies of cuts in gas prices, health care ones, dental care for seniors, tax cuts, and beer and wine in corner stores need to drive the headlines not scandals. I know the media dislikes Ford and fair or not, I find choosing leaders who are friendlier with the media helps. Scheer is doing a good job of handling media relations and if he keeps it up should pay off.
Anyways it’s not over, Ford still can win a majority, but now is crunch time and NDP gains need to be taken seriously. I feel far too many underestimated the threat they posed from the beginning as after seeing Alberta 2015, I saw enough similarities to see a risk of this. Hopefully it doesn’t end like Alberta.
LikeLike
Ontario voters need to look at what happened in Alberta before they decide to vote NDP.
This election is about clearing out a very bad government, it should never be about personality but that can play into it for some.
LikeLike
Agreed, although sadly it seems Canada as a whole has really swung leftward in the past few years. What’s even more scary is the rest of the world is going the opposite way putting us at even a more competitive disadvantage.
I think now is time to hit the NDP hard on their policy. Unlike Alberta there is still enough time to change the narrative, but the PC’s need to act and act fast.
LikeLike
I’m just hoping there are enough people fed up with the unions and media running interference any way they can, then get informed and decide for themselves.
This is a sink or swim election, for Ontario there is only one smart choice.
LikeLike
Don’t forget that not ALL unions dislike Ford. Not by a long shot. Ford right now is in favour with the blue-collar workers of Windsor, Hamilton and Oshawa. It’s the public sector unions that can flip between the NDP and Liberals so easily when asked by their talking heads to do so. I don’t believe for a minutes that Ford is in any trouble whatsoever.
LikeLike
The 1.4 billion hole in the NDP platform is getting a lot of media attention so hopefully that will blunt their surge. As for unions, I cannot stand public sector ones, but I think a lot of people still look back on the positive things unions brought in the early days and forgot today’s unions are much different than the past never mind private sector unions are a whole different thing than public sector ones.
LikeLike
For those concerned about the numbers, you might want to consider signing up for Mainstreet Research daily tracker which is only 30 dollars. While I cannot divulge any details, if you look at their past ones and tweets, it seems highly unlikely NDP will win the most seats unless there is a big polling error or something dramatic happens. I think if Horwath does become premier it will be due to a similar scenario like BC where PC’s win most seats but fall short of a majority and the moment the NDP becomes unpopular Liberals would probably pull the plug. Also even if you look at Abacus, PC vote is more efficient so if tied in popular vote PC’s still win more seats. Likewise demographics most likely to show up favour PC’s. So yes NDP can win, but if you look deeper into the numbers they aren’t there. I would say by May 29th two days after the debate if NDP hasn’t pulled ahead they won’t win the most seats.
LikeLike
Cara – I think many private sector union workers like Ford, but the leadership doesn’t although often union leaders are offside with their membership. I don’t think Windsor will go PC considering how badly they did last time but I do think they will improve over recent elections. In Hamilton, I think they will win Flamborough-Glanbrook and maybe Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas but not the other three. Oshawa is tough to say but at the moment I would give the NDP edge, but it could go PC. Also not all the people in those cities are blue collar, you have a lot of service jobs and generally I find those who live in the suburbs and commute are more likely to vote Conservative than those who live in the central party of the city.
Still I think while Ford is popular with the base, I think he is a big turnoff to swing voters which Elliott would have not been. Nonetheless dislike of the Liberals as well as perhaps wariness of the NDP amongst over 50 might be enough to ensure many vote PC even if with their noses held up.
LikeLike
Has Horwath talked any more about making Ontario a sanctuary province and how she will deal with it? Trudeau is making Canada a sanctuary allowing “irregulars” into the country with no plan as to how he will deal with them.
LikeLike
So polls are saying NDP is closing in on Ford…not surprising in this crazy province. That’s what you get after a long Liberal rule resulting in massive debt. Voting PC means the piper must be paid and that’s not something the Left and their supporters have any interest in.
LikeLike
Yeah it is frustrating, but my take is since few until a week ago thought the NDP had any chance, they had very little scrutiny. Good news is there is still time and I suspect they will face a lot more scrutiny than they have to date, whereas if this surge happened in the final week like it did in Alberta or 2011 federally there wouldn’t be time to correct it. I also think on personal ratings, Horwath’s high ones have less to do with her and more she is not Wynne or Ford. As for Ford, unfortunately I think in the last PCPO leadership race, people’s views of each candidate save Tanya Granic Allen was based more on kinship than individual. Otherwise what you thought of Jim Flaherty determined what you thought of Elliott, what you thought of Brian Mulroney determined what you thought of Caroline Mulroney and what you thought of Rob Ford determined for Doug Ford.
Inside the GTA, PC numbers are only bad in areas you would never expect them to win (i.e. downtown Toronto), doing well and north of 40% with double digit leads in the 905 belt, Scarborough, North York, and Etobicoke. It’s more outside the GTA where Doug Ford’s approvals are problematic as inside we all remember the Rob Ford who made a fool of the city and had addiction issues, but we also remember the Rob Ford who returned every phone call and saved taxpayer’s money. Outside the GTA, people only know what they heard from the media and thus know Doug Ford as the brother of the crack smoking mayor of Toronto who made a fool of the city. That being said if Doug Ford gains in all the areas mentioned in the GTA, holds all the rural ridings they currently hold, that is more or less a majority and any other seats the gain are just bonuses. I think they will pick up a few seats in Eastern Ontario as NDP very weak there while in Southwestern Ontario I think it will probably be the status quo for the PCs while NDP gaining most Liberal seats there. There are three Liberal held ridings I think PCs are in good shape to pick up while two they hold at risk of loss if things tighten up more (but at the moment they would still hold). I don’t think there are many if any NDP ridings we will pick up, but plenty of Liberal ones and most if not all NDP gains will be from Liberal ridings.
Unless NDP messes up badly in the final two weeks, I think they will get over 30 seats and may even get over 40 seats, but crossing the 50 seat mark will be a challenge unless they surge further and I think Liberals are near their floor so only so much more they can pick up from the Liberals while so far most PC support is holding and slight decline is simply due to not picking up a lot of undecided voters. For PCs, 90 seats is probably not possible now but was always a stretch. 80 seats still possible, but probably on the high side unlike a few weeks ago. 70 seats, which is still majority territory although just barely is more likely what we would get now. Worse case scenario at the moment is a strong minority just shy of a majority. Due to greater voter efficiency, PCs could lose their popular vote and still win more seats. In fact if NDP won every riding where they are within 10 points (this is using a uniform swing, not any actual riding polls), it would result in a tie for both around 55 seats.
Another thing is sadly throughout much of Canada, progressives are a potent force and today seem to have little partisan loyalty and are more driven to keep conservatives out of power. That doesn’t mean we cannot win, but definitely it is a tough fight. I strongly disagree with their views, but don’t for a minute doubt their strength. I think the occupy wall street and concern about income inequality as well as millennials not having the same negative view on socialism as their parents is a big part of it. Most progressives I talk to hold up Nordic Countries as model societies and since they all enjoy very high standards of living, they assume socialism works forgetting those countries are not nearly as socialistic as the left thinks and the policies they advocate are not the ones the Nordic Countries are implementing never mind in the last decade there have been more centre-right than centre-left ones there suggesting maybe the grass isn’t as green on the other side as they think. The policies they advocate are more like Greece than Sweden but few on the left seem to realize this.
LikeLike
Ipsos poll showing NDP ahead by one is scary. Only good news is regionals make zero sense. Case and point:
416 – PC 37% NDP 34%
905 NDP 36% PC 35%
Zero chance PCs doing better in 416 than 905. Also if you compare to May 11-14th
416 NDP 38% PC 34% so PCs up here a bit
905 PC 49% NDP 29% so I believe there has been a bit of a shift but nothing this massive mind you perhaps the real result is somewhere between the two, otherwise PC 42% NDP 33% seems more believable although 905 probably would have to include Hamilton-Niagara region to push NDP that high.
That being said if worried I would recommend subscribing to Mainstreet. Yes its tough to know who is wrong, but considering their sample size and it being telephone as well as more detailed regional I tend to think they are more likely to be right. Cannot give the numbers out but they are mildly worrying but not downright frightening like Abacus and Ipsos are. Anyways NDP needs to come under a lot of scrutiny in fast to stop the momentum. I warned many all along there was a risk of this happening. Wasn’t sure if it would happen but always saw the potential there. Likewise PCs need to avoid anymore embarrassing mistakes since if in high 30s they can still win a majority, but any more slippage that is gone. Also should try to find a way to push support back into the 40s. Probably won’t get up to levels they were when Ford was first chosen as leader, but a bit higher than now. Besides I always thought no matter who we choose as leader, numbers would fall a bit.
LikeLike
I wonder how much of the “new” NDP support is the “life long Liberal” vote and how much is alt-left leap-manifesto “progressives”; if the majority is the life long liberal type, these people may be shooting themselves in the foot, as it seems that their party is heading toward 3rd party status or worse and I don’t see a Trudeau messiah on the horizon to save them
LikeLike
I’ve also seen some PC supporters who dislike Ford saying they will go NDP, talk about cutting off your nose in spite. Yes that was fine when NDP was in third, but now that they are closing in on PCs way too risky. If you absolutely cannot stand Ford, go Green, Libertarian or decline your ballot, but going NDP is not the answer if a former PC supporter. Wildrose in Alberta got 34% in 2012 and then fell to 24% in 2015 as many made this stupid mistake so needs to be avoided.
LikeLike
Here is a really scary thought and I hope to God doesn’t happen. It is December 2020 and NDP is in power in all five provinces west of the Ottawa River. Likely, no, but possible, scarily enough it is and if it happens we are in big trouble.
British Columbia: Although a minority government, Weaver won’t pull the plug until PR referendum is held this Fall. Polls show most like the concept of proportional representation and only fails when people see the details, so the NDP is therefore just asking do you want it or not, no details on how it will look. If it passes, only on any election after July 1, 2021 will it take effect thus guaranteeing no matter how bad the NDP is, the Greens won’t pull the plug. Since the speaker is a former BC Liberal, that means BC Liberals need to pick up two by-elections or recall two MLAs which are both tall orders, so odds are BC NDP lasts until Fall of 2021.
Alberta: Agreed UCP will probably win next year and Jason Kenney will probably be premier, but its not a 100% certainty. Rachel Notley’s strong stance with BC could help her. I also say UCP support of flat tax, more funding for private schools while balanced budget as creating an opening for Notley to play class warfare and claim UCP is only for the top 10% while NDP is for the bottom 90%. Will it work, probably not, but definitely a risk.
Saskatchewan: The biggest risk here is the Saskatchewan Party will have been in power for 13 years so desire for change will be strong. The good news is NDP can sweep Regina, win all but three seats in Saskatoon, hold the two Northern ridings, and pick up both Prince Albert and Moose Jaw seats, but that still puts them shy of a majority. To win, they have to win in rural areas outside the far north and they have a massive gap to overcome so the desire for change will have to be really strong, not just somewhat in order to win in areas no one expects.
Manitoba: Due to voter efficiency, NDP doesn’t have to win the popular vote here, just has to come close. Since their margin of victory in Winnipeg (which is 55% of the population) will be much smaller than PC one in Rural Manitoba they could lose the popular vote but win most seats. The good news, is they got thumped in 2016 and usually it takes a bit longer before people are willing to return to power they massively defeated. So in all likelihood it will probably be like BC in 2005, a greatly reduced PC Majority.
Ontario: 16 days we will find out whether nightmare scenario plausible or not, lets hope not.
At the same time its still not all bad news for Tories.
Ontario: Although polls narrowing PCs still favoured.
New Brunswick: Things have tightened a lot and PCs might be ahead so PC pickup possible here.
Quebec: Most polls show centre-right CAQ leading and with a strong lead amongst Francophones, they could lose the popular vote but still win the most seats. Never mind the Liberals under Philippe Couillard are centre-right not centre-left like federally or in Ontario.
Alberta: As explained above, UCP still heavily favoured.
PEI: Not a lot of polling but Liberals running for fourth term and Green support is likely soft so PCs have a chance here.
Newfoundland & Labrador: Liberals favoured, but PCs have closed the gap so strong platform and campaign makes a win here plausible albeit not likely.
Federally: Nanos who is the most accurate pollster shows Liberals only one point ahead. If Trudeau keeps doing stupid things, Scheer just might win. What looked impossible a year ago now seems quite plausible although far from certain.
BC and Nova Scotia: Too far out to say but PC win in Nova Scotia and BC Liberal in BC are both plausible but too far ahead to make any prognostications.
Hopefully the latter largely plays out.
LikeLike
Just anecdotally, my lovely wife will not admit on phone polls that she will vote PC even though she ultimately will. She is uncomfortable with Ford. I suspect there may be some of this in the poll results.
LikeLike
I’ve heard that too. I suspect might be some shy Liberal support too which while normally a bad thing at this point might be a good thing as they are now clearly in third and so better they do the better we do. Apparently the Liberals have launched onto another scandal with Ford and have a recorded time. Hope this is not a time bomb, but considering past indiscretions were quickly fixed might be over hyped, at least lets hope. I did see a tweet from Quito Maggi at Mainstreet saying signs of Blue Liberals going to PCs. I sure hope this is true.
LikeLike
Miles, I have a feeling the Liberals have all kinds of tricks up their sleeves. Hopefully we will weather the assault.
LikeLike
The problem is every time they release something nasty about the PCs it helps the NDP not them, so actually it doesn’t work in their interest. I too hope we can weather the storms and at least the NDP will get more scrutiny. I think from what I am seeing this will be a dogfight. NDP could unfortunately win, but a majority will be tough unless they rise further. Likewise PCs still have a decent shot at a majority, but will probably be a narrow one, not a blowout.
LikeLike
Greg, that reminds me about what happened in the U.S. election. A lot of people were afraid to say they supported Trump and thus the polling was so understated for him.
LikeLike
There may be some shy Ford supporters, but I tend to think if PCs overperform it will be more due to low turnout and their supporters more motivated to show up. For starters its only online polls which is mostly what we’ve been seeing that shows NDP tied with PCs. IVR polls (otherwise robocall ones) still show PCs with a tighter but decent size lead (around 7-8 points). Last election online polls generally overestimated NDP support while IVR underestimated so truth probably falls in between. Likewise amongst age breakdown, PCs still ahead amongst over 35 who are more likely to vote. Still the polls should cause some concern. PCs still have a decent shot at winning, but an NDP win is also possible.
LikeLike
The NDP ads are telling a pack of lies about Ford too. What is the best course of action to deal with such ads?
LikeLike
Hit them on economic policy and how they are worse than the Liberals. The PCs absolutely must bomb the airwaves with hard hitting ads against the NDP. Even if their internal polls show a rosier picture, there is always the risk of a bandwagon effect like you see in Alberta in 2015 so they want to hit them before that happens.
LikeLike
I think Ford’s handled it all pretty well actually. Apparently the PCs have a bombshell of their own to release tomorrow on the NDP. We can play that game too.
LikeLike
Lorrie Goldstein offers the best piece of election advice I’ve heard so far – “”I can’t promise you anything until I win & we get a look at the province’s books, given the concerns of the Auditor General and Financial Accountability Office. I can promise we won’t lie to you like the previous gov’t did.”
LikeLike
Yes that was excellent advice, Anne!
LikeLike
It is great advice. Hope Ford continues to use that when pressed for numbers because it’s the truth and it’s the fiscally prudent thing to do.
LikeLike
If heaven forbid the NDP wins in Ontario, sure glad I moved to BC. Yes we have an incompetent NDP government, but at least its a minority and they are only beginning to do damage, not worsening 15 years of it. Based on the tweets I am hearing, I am getting very very nervous about this. Obviously we have to wait until e-day to comment, but I always feared choosing Doug Ford would be a big gamble while Christine Elliott was much safer. Off course maybe I will be proven wrong as I think things are quite volatile as people are making up their minds so nothing is yet a foregone conclusion.
LikeLike
The only blessing in disguise of an NDP win in Ontario is it might make it easier for the Tories nationally as people will want some balance on the spectrum and Andrew Scheer unlike Ford seems pretty harmless and doesn’t rub people the wrong way.
LikeLike
Two things PCs need to do if they want are:
1. Ran several ads highlighting the NDP’s more left wing policies. They should have done this weeks ago when signs of a surge were emerging instead of waiting until they caught up.
2. Forget about any campaign events tomorrow or Saturday. Have a brief conference while spend those two days doing major debate preparation. This is going to be key since if Ford hits it out of the park here he can still win. If he stumbles, it’s over.
LikeLike
Looking at the polls, it seems the PCs biggest problem is more lack of vote splitting as unfortunately more in Ontario are on the left than right thus when left is split its easy to win but when it coalesces around one party its problematic. Otherwise many of us want to see the Liberals lose and rightly so, but if they fall too far it means an NDP win. Yes we might pick up some Blue Liberals, but for every Liberal vote the PCs gain, about 3 to 4 go to the NDP. That was my reason for wanting more a consensus type candidate so we could get up around 45% and vote splitting wouldn’t be an issue. Still I don’t think an NDP win is inevitable, but the PCs need to take the threat seriously. Ford won’t beat Horwath on trust or personality, but he can still beat her on policies, otherwise he absolutely must make the final two weeks about policy if he wants to win.
That being said Liberals are so badly damaged that I think they will get wiped out. Unfortunately that means if the PCs win, they will probably be a one term wonder, but hopefully at least the NDP moderates to be more like they are in the Prairies. If the NDP wins, I think you will start seeing the PCs get in the high 40s or maybe even crack 50% like they do in the Western provinces and so yes one NDP will be disastrous, but Ontario might become like BC where centre-right is in power for many years and then once every generation you get one term of the NDP just to remind people how bad things are.
LikeLike
Well I’m not going to worry too much yet. It ain’t over til it’s over. Sure is a fascinating election campaign so far though.
LikeLike
Interesting on the artificial intelligence one again, NDP surging and almost tied with PCs, but due to voter efficiency, PC majority still 70 seats PC to 52 seats NDP and 1 seat Liberal. Interestingly enough Quito Maggi of mainstreet tweeted from their polling NDP has pulled ahead but seat count would be 67 PC, 47 NDP, 7 Liberal, and 1 Green while two are too close to call, so Ford could do a repeat of Trump and win seat wise but lose vote wise due to inefficient vote of NDP. This would drive lefties nuts, but make him very vulnerable to a single term.
LikeLike
Here is the link https://tvo.org/video/programs/the-agenda-with-steve-paikin/the-changing-minds-of-ontario-voters
LikeLike
What Advance Symbolics is essentially saying is that for Ford to lose this 5% of PCs would have to vote for Horwath. I hope that doesn’t happen but it might.
LikeLike
I trust this more group more than any hired pollsters.
LikeLike
Actually Mainstreet if you look at their tweets are saying the same thing and they have individual riding polling too which most pollsters don’t. As for 5% of PC’s going Horwath that doesn’t meant 5% drop it simply means 37.2 * 0.05 so that is only 1.875% of the electorate. Also 14% are undecided and that will be key. I’ve seen mixed data on this some suggesting they are promiscuous progressives who want to see who can beat Ford best, but others showing they are reluctant PCs who are uncomfortable with Ford but dislike the other choices. If the former we are big trouble, if latter we should do a bit better than the polls suggest.
LikeLike
Also Forum has a scary poll out until you look at the raw data. It is 47% NDP 33% PC and 14% Liberal so very scary. But then the raw numbers show 342 PC 307 NDP and 143 Liberal so talk about massive re-weighting. Anyways Mainstreet tweeted they still have PCs ahead while Ekos says NDP so who really knows at this point.
LikeLike
Interesting weighting, looks to me like somebody is trying to create false momentum for the NDP
LikeLike
Yeah never mind Innovative has a poll out showing PC’s 5 points ahead, Frank Graves from Ekos which showed NDP 10 points ahead said after running another day it is back to within the margin of error and main reason for volatility is the under 35 crowd. Mainstreet claims PC’s still ahead. Still whether the NDP is ahead or not, this should be a wake up call to get serious. I don’t think people Ontario want a strong shift to the left, but I believe our choice of Doug Ford was a big mistake. I still think we can win this, but had we chosen Christine Elliott instead we probably wouldn’t even discussing the possibility of not winning. The focus needs to be on policy where I think things can be more favourable to PCs not person otherwise get the candidates out a lot more and less emphasis on Ford and also release a fully costed platform ASAP. Likewise bomb the air waves with attack ads on NDP and create doubt in voters minds. Forum poll does show whether closing Pickering plant, opposition to beer and wine in corner stores, or refusing to order York University striking workers back, NDP is offside with voters so it seems likeability of leader not policies is driving this. And lets face it we aren’t going to beat Andrea Horwath on likeability, she is the more likeable leader, we can beat her on policies however.
LikeLike
The biggest differences were definitely younger under 34’s and women. I agree, Ford was a big mistake strategically. This would have been a wipeout with Elliot.
LikeLiked by 1 person
I think we can still be hopeful and at the very least if the NDP does win please hope its only a minority although prefer they don’t win at all.
LikeLike
I know some who like Ford might hate this, but if I were God and could determine the election, I would ensure PCs won exactly 62 seats (half), Mike Schreiner wins his (he would be a good neutral speaker in a split legislature) and Ford loses his own seat (some stepping aside for him would be too risky). Elliott wins her and the party choses her as leader and she becomes the next premier. I know this is wishful thinking, but my great worry is with Ford’s high negatives, even if we do win a majority, it will be a one term wonder and the NDP will come in and wreck things in 2022. With Elliott as leader, I think we could easily win 2 or 3 terms. That being said unlike some I hope the Liberals don’t totally disappear and I hope their next leader is more centrist than Wynne so if the PCs do mess up we have a centrist alternative, not a hard left one which is bad for the province.
LikeLike
Where does the effect of throwing Tanya Granic Allen (and her supporters) under the bus figure into the massive drop-off of PC support? The internal machinations within the party are still a factor and until the leader, any leader, is allowed to winnow out the rot the decline of the party will continue.
LikeLike
I don’t think the decline is from there at all. The base is still fully onboard it is the swing voters. I’ve always argued you cannot win on a strongly right wing platform in Ontario, you have to be fairly centrist, so for those who want a strongly right wing platform I guess it becomes do you want a leader whose views you support but cannot win or do you want one that is maybe too centrist for your liking but still electable and preferable to NDP and Liberals.
I think the numbers are being driven solely by personality. Doug Ford appeals to strongly to a certain core, but is a huge turnoff amongst many while Andrea Horwath even though quite left wing is very likeable on a personal level. I believe had we chosen Elliott instead of Ford we would have a strong lead and this would be a non-issue.
LikeLike
Are you implying that voters are displaying a certain shallowness? Sounds about right – it could be why we have PM Trudeau.2.
LikeLike
I wouldn’t shallowness, I would say its just values of where people stand. Canada and Ontario are fairly centrist if not slightly left of centre so while most aren’t as left wing as the NDP, I think people get more skittish about a government they feel will be too right wing than too left wing. There is a general view a bad left wing government you can clean up later while a bad right wing you cannot. I don’t subscribe to this view, but I think that is quite common. I also think living next door to the US which has a very strong right wing base that most Canadians find too scary plays a big role in scaring people from those on the right that think are too right wing. If we lived next door to Venezuela instead of the US, I suspect people would be lot more frightened of the left than they are.
Likewise in Ontario, it generally breaks down like this
30% – Conservative base who vote Conservative no matter what
15% – swing voters who sometimes vote conservative but sometimes don’t.
55% – progressives who never vote Conservative.
How the 15% who are swing voters is key. I think there is enough anger at Wynne and skepticism with NDP the PCs will get at least 5% of that so should get at least 35% of the popular vote, but I also think 5% of that are really turned off by Ford so I think cracking the 40% mark will be a real challenge (Ford still might, but likely due to poor turnout as PC voters more likely to show up) whereas if we had Elliott she probably would have picked up all the 15% and being non-scary to the left, also had better splits to a landslide majority.
I think the things turning people off with Doug Ford are two fold
1. He doesn’t come across as very knowledgeable and unlike in the US, I think Canadians tend to like politicians they feel know their stuff. You don’t have to be left wing for this, in fact Harper was the exact opposite and probably one of the most knowledgeable leaders we’ve had (far more so than Trudeau).
2. His aggressive style works fine with males but is a huge turnoff with women. If you look at polls before he was chosen, PCs were north of 40% with females, but after he was chosen fallen to low 30s while male support still is up in the 40s.
Obviously I could be wrong but that is my take on things. Once the results come in, I will re-assess as then you can look at actual numbers as well as geographical to see where the party did well and didn’t do so well. In closing it’s only because the Liberals are so wildly unpopular and NDP started far back that will still have a chance. In any of the past five elections, had Ford been leader, we would have faced results as bad or worse than Hudak. That is partly why in my above post I hope the party is right on the cusp of a majority but he loses his own seat so we can get a new leader as I am convinced with his low approval starting out, he will be a one term wonder, whereas I think with Elliott or even Fideli or some of the others, could easily win two to three terms.
LikeLike
“There is a general view a bad left wing government you can clean up later while a bad right wing you cannot.” How wrong they are – we have only to look at how quickly the sensible policies of the previous federal government have been/are being dismantled. The extreme left wing policies and priorities of the current bunch are changing the very demographics of the country and piling up the debt faster than water goes down a drain. Ontario may prove to be a prime example of what happens when ‘left’ is bad so let’s go ‘lefter’. Yeah, that’ll work!
LikeLike
And if Christine Elliott instead of Doug Ford was leader I don’t think we would even be entertaining they idea of premier Horwath. I want the PCs to succeed but get so frustrated myself when they keep on choosing horrible leaders and throwing away elections. Yes maybe Ford will get lucky to vote distribution and win, but far from certain and trends not great. More importantly with his low approval ratings, I suspect if he wins he will be a one term wonder thus why if he gets a majority it will be important to watch his approval ratings and if they stay low, then have he removed in a leadership review in 2020 so we can recover in time for 2022.
LikeLike
From what I am seeing it seems NDP gains are strongest amongst those who don’t remember the Rae era and that is now a significant portion of the population. Someone who was 18 in 1990 would today be 46 and someone who 18 in 1995 would be 41 today so pretty much anyone under 40 never mind those who have moved from different provinces or different countries would have no recollection thus why I think the party should have been prepared for this possibility and nipped it in the bud when the first signs were showing in late April. Its too volatile to predict the outcome, but I think I know a few things.
1. The Liberals will lose and will fall to third place. Whether they win enough seats to form official party status or not is to be determined and even winning zero seats is not totally out of the realm of possibility.
2. Both Horwath and Ford could win the election, which it will be, will be decided on how things go in the next 12 days. A landslide majority for either is highly unlikely
3. Millennial turnout will be key here. Strong millennial turnout and Horwath has the edge. Weak millennial turnout and Ford has the edge.
PCs need to hit the NDP plans hard as it is leader not policies driving votes. Ford will not beat Horwath in terms of whom is more liked. But he can beat her in having better policies. PCs need to get their costed platform out soon and fast otherwise more vulnerable. Also ignore the Liberals, they are on their way out and the more they fall, the worse our chances are. It is actually at the point where I hope the Liberals rebound a bit in the polls as unless you have a Red Tory who can pull a lot of Liberal votes over, you need strong splits on the left to win in Ontario. Female leaders like Caroline Mulroney and Christine Elliott as well as Lisa McLeod to a lesser extent need to start showing up more a big announcements and be in the media more. Ford is struggling with women and is a general turnoff to them so those two can help us win over some female votes on the fence. The emphasis needs to be on the team and less on Ford as we have strong candidates compared to the NDP, but our leader fair or not is not well liked by the public.
LikeLike
I have been pretty clear up until now choosing Ford was a mistake and we should have chosen Elliott. Obviously as long as Ford gets a majority, he gets to stay on and I will only call for his resignation if his poll numbers dip low enough I feel that 2022 is unwinneable, much like I did for Harper in 2013 as it was at that point my gut feeling was he couldn’t win in 2015. Maybe once Ford gets in and starts implementing some of his policies, things will get better as I get the impression it is his personality as opposed to policies people strongly dislike. That being said, if the PCs get less than 40% of the popular vote and fewer than 70 seats, I will say our choice was a big mistake as under the current conditions there is zero excuse for either happening. I think Horwath as leader even if she falls short is safe and I suspect contrary to what some thought she will stay on to fight the next election even if she comes up short. Wynne will be gone as both premier and Liberal leader very soon and she may not even win her own riding and even if she does, she will probably step down creating an opening for a PC pickup in a by-election. For Ford if he loses his own seat, he needs to step down as leader unless the party gets at least 64 seats. If at only 63 seats we cannot afford to lose any so having someone step aside for a by-election is too risky, see John Tory in 2009. If over 64 or higher then someone should step aside to let him run in a safe seat, but he only gets one chance. If he loses the by-election then he needs to go.
Also in closing, I have mixed feelings about the NDP replacing Liberals as main alternative. On the one hand, if the PCs can broaden their base and bring on many Blue Liberals, I believe the PCs could become a pro free enterprise coalition much like the BC Liberals have and the Saskatchewan Party has and be very successful in winning often as after one NDP government, usually takes another generation for another to come along. On the other hand, in some ways I hope the Liberals don’t totally implode as I believe after their strategy of trying to be more NDP like has failed so miserably, I am hoping their next leader is more centrist as when the PCs mess up, its good to have a reasonable alternative as opposed to a dangerous one. The NDP might be okay if they became like the Saskatchewan NDP under Romanow, Manitoba NDP under Gary Doer or Labour Party under Tony Blair, but it seems Third Way social democrats are very 90s thing and nowadays there is little interest amongst progressives in this so I don’t count on this happening with the party for a long time.
LikeLike
“Female leaders like Caroline Mulroney and Christine Elliott as well as Lisa McLeod to a lesser extent need to start showing up more a big announcements and be in the media more.”
I totally agree, Miles, although they may be fearful of that Ford association in their own ridings. đŸ˜‰
LikeLike
Some pretty crazy stuff coming from some of the NDP candidates. We are in one heck of a situation in this province. The PC’s seem to always manage to choose the wrong leader when the situation is ripe for them to win and win big or flub it all at the eleventh hour a la Hudak.
We have to hope, maybe pray too. There is only one choice, warts and all this time.
LikeLike
Yes Liz. It’s crazy alright. Pray for Ontario and for Canada.
LikeLike
It wouldn’t matter who was chosen as leader the opposition and the media would find something – anything – to disparage him or her whether it was true or not. Remember the disgusting stories about Laureen Harper? When they’re out to get you they’ll always find a way. There’s a reason for the rise of “alt-right” as a descriptor for anyone they want rid of.
LikeLike
Somewhat disconcerting video here: https://tvo.org/video/programs/the-agenda-with-steve-paikin/ontario-hubs-ndp-surge-in-the-southwest
LikeLike
Well isn’t the PC candidate for Kitchener-Conestoga Mike Harris Jr. THAT could explain this. Not to mention that the teachers are out in full force campaigning for the NDP and using all of the anti-Harris scare-mongering that goes with that.
I think it’s way too early to give up hope on this one kids. On the hole, and even with the blips that Ford has had tossed at him he’s managed them pretty well.
Horwath hasn’t been tested as a front-runner yet. That starts tonight with the debate and rolls into the next two weeks.
My rural riding will likely still go Blue but there are pockets of small towns that were usually leaned Liberal which are now orange. Not enough to beat the PCs but there’s a strike in the world’s largest salt mine near us that’s seeing a LOT of attention from Unifor and the NDP.
LikeLike
Ford and the PCs are no where as far behind as some polls would like us to believe. http://onpulse.ca/assets/images/blogPost/Wave3_4.PNG
LikeLike
What are the swing vote numbers and where will they be swinging to? It’s no time for protest voting by the PCs ,as Conservative I could never in my right mind vote NDP given the mess this province is in today. It is irresponsible, stupid, insane, you name it. It will be worse than Bob Rae’s tenure if Horwath gets elected.
For me, there is only one choice for the janitorial work that will have to be done. Saying we need change is not enough, we have a big debt, the NDP have plans that will be sure to add to the already ballooning debt.
LikeLike
Will somebody tell me who in their right mind would vote for making this a sanctuary province and raising the carbon tax?
LikeLike
I think what’s going on is an Anyone But Ford movement similar to what we saw in the last federal election. Scary times.
LikeLike
Agreed and that is why I think we should have chosen Elliott. She is far less polarizing and while I agree with the attacks on her numbers would have softened, I still think our support would be in the low 40s and you would get slightly less strategic voting. That being said if NDP wins they will probably be a one term wonder. Unfortunately if the Ford PCs win, I am afraid they will be too unless Ford is removed as leader long enough before the election to allow a recovery. Quite depressing, but I feared things wouldn’t turn out well when Ford won. I actually think due to the party grassroots having a horrible history of choosing the wrong candidate, the party executive should have not bothered with a leadership and just stuck with Vic Fideli. He may not be exciting, but he doesn’t scare people either and is quite competent.
LikeLike
All the “coulda, shoulda, woulda’s” in the world aren’t going to change a thing nor will the “I toldya so’s”. Canada is moving inexorably leftward as proven in past elections in Alberta and BC, not to mention the Maritimes. Until people wake up and realize we’ll never be able to pay for everything every party is promising we’ll remain in a downward spiral. The only man who had the guts and didn’t crave the glory was Stephen Harper. Too bad, so sad, we had the best and consigned our futures to open doors and lots of virtue signalling. Where did that get Sweden and Germany and Belgium and Italy and Greece and….? All we can do now is vote and hope.
LikeLike
Oh…and at least it’s not going to be a vote for Patrick Brown. Thank goodness for small mercies.
LikeLike
Agree Canada is swinging leftward. What’s frustrating is the rest of the world is going the opposite way. Still Ontario election isn’t over and between now and next federal election we have Quebec, New Brunswick and Alberta. Alberta will likely swing rightward, Quebec is quite possible, and even New Brunswick looks more realistic at the moment. I still think though from everything I’ve seen and heard, we would be in better shape if we had a better leader. Off course yes it was always going to be a dog fight no matter what, but if we started five points higher a slightly larger cushion. Off course the main focus is now the debate. Ford needs to show Horwath’s policies are risky without coming across as too aggressive. He has been quiet in the past few days so hopefully he has done a lot of rehearsing for the debate.
LikeLike
I will say this, I abhor the idea of NDP winning, but if they must please ensure it is only a minority so they can be kept on a tight leash. Anyways the PCs need to realize their chances of victory are slipping and slipping fast and so they need to start rolling out hard hitting ads and start making their policies more known. Also release the fully costed platform ASAP.
LikeLike
Absolutely! Get that platform out there now!!
LikeLiked by 1 person
Watching the debate, did someone tell Doug to keep grinning like the cat that swallowed the canary?!
LikeLike
If so, it must be the same person who told Andrea Horwath to interrupt and talk over him. Reminds me of Justin in 2015.
LikeLike
My thoughts on the debate from what I’ve heard.
Wynne: This was without question her best debate performance to date and I would say she was the winner. Not enough to save her job, but she is so far behind there is nothing she could do in order to win. This is good news for the PCs as we at this point need the Liberals to rebound. The more they fall, the more the NDP pulls ahead so unlike a month ago, I am now actually hoping the Liberals go up in the polls. They are far enough behind they have no chance at winning and any gains will hurt the NDP more than us.
Ford: A weak start, but improved as the debate went on and had some good zingers. He has always been a lousy debater so he was never going to win, he just had to not lose which I think he did.
Horwath: Struggled a bit. Not a disaster but not the performance that would have guaranteed her a ticket to the premier’s office. Otherwise she still might win, but if she had a good night tonight, it would be a guaranteed win and she thankfully failed to get that.
LikeLike
Haha Yes I find myself rooting for the Liberals a bit now.
The problem is that even if the PCs squeak through with a minority government, the other two parties could still form a coalition right?
LikeLike
No agree that is a problem. I am more thinking about the Liberals rising enough to get the right vote splits so the PCs still do win a majority.
LikeLike
We did see Wynne and Horwath shake hands behind Ford’s back, there’s a message there!
LikeLike
Good point Liz.
Well we need to see the PC platform now. Right now.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Don’t give up kids! The PCs are doing just fine. Stop letting the media and polls get to you. This is not lost. Not by a long shot.
The PCs are the only ones trusted to deal with the fiscal mess that Wynne has left behind. Have a look at what a STRONG caucus we will have when we form government.
By contrast, when asked when Horwath was asked who among her candidates would be Finance Minister, she couldn’t say.
LikeLike
Awesome stuff Cara! And thanks for the pep talk. đŸ™‚
LikeLike
When polls or trends are looking bad, I was wondering how to do different people deal with it. Do you still try to remind hopeful or do you brace yourself for the worse. I do the latter as at least it doesn’t feel as bad if the worse comes true, while if the party I want to win does win in a surprise, it’s a very pleasant one (BC 2013 is an example of this). Otherwise I don’t handle negative surprises well so I always tend to prepare for the worst but hope for the best.
LikeLike
I realize its not over until its over, but must say I feel really angry at the PCs. I feel like we’ve botched another easily winneable election. Even if we do win, we should have a double digit lead in the polls and we shouldn’t even talking about falling short. So frustrating. I hope it works it okay, but if not, I hope on the bright side an NDP win helps result in a Tory win federally in 2019 which would at least bring some balance.
LikeLike
Any NDP finance minister after the mess of debt we have from Wynne’s reign is a scary thought.
NDP and finance could be a lethal mix.
LikeLike
If you find the Ontario numbers depressing, here is something that might cheer you up. Nanos for the first time in 2.5 years is showing the Tories in the lead by three points. So living in BC, I feel your pain if you get an NDP government, but if next year we get a federal Tory government that will help balance things out a bit.
LikeLike
It is 36% Tories, 33% Liberals, 19.8% NDP, that is federally and a four week rolling average so hope this trend continues. I just hope Scheer runs a much better campaign than Ford has. Not saying Ford will lose for sure, but things are not looking good although I think it is going to come down to turnout in the end. If millennials show up in big numbers, I think Horwath will win. If they don’t then I think Ford will still win albeit much closer than we would like.
LikeLike
One other note, I would encourage everyone here to not read my most recent post, you won’t like it. It is a prediction that I really didn’t want to make but so I can be on the record of my prediction that is why I put it out and I cannot backtrack and say something different after the results so that is why I posted it. But note its only a prediction and I have been wrong before so don’t get demoralized. I predicted Clinton would win in 2016, NDP in BC in 2013, a BC Liberal majority in 2017 (albeit I was only two seats off just happened to above as opposed to below the threshold), only a Liberal minority in 2015, and Conservative minority in 2011 (although very close to a majority), while a Tory majority in last UK election. Also got the last two provincial elections wrong as I predicted a Liberal majority in 2011, while Liberal minority in 2014. I will revise it if numbers change and hopefully they do become more favourable.
LikeLike
On the Ontario front, a few news items.
1. Ipsos shows PCs have regained a narrow lead by three points so good news there.
2. Mainstreet showed NDP surging ahead, but their CEO tweeted for the paid subscription PCs are back on top due NDP dropping and OLP rising so it appears Wynne’s strong debate performance last night was exactly the break we needed.
3. The AI was on the agenda and stated Doug Ford performed poorly and while PCs still in majority territory they have little room for error and it would only take 3% of PCs shifting to NDP to get an NDP majority.
One thing its not going to be a sleeper like some of us thought, but instead a very interesting next 10 days. I thought Ford was smart to showcase his candidates today and wish he had done it earlier. He is one of the weaker links, but has a very strong team, especially compared to the NDP so something he should do.
LikeLike
Here are some more numbers. The aggregates are what are going to get Ford into government.
With Wynne’s performance in the debate it’s possible that she could sway back some of those considering the NDP. Which is good for Ford.
AI also suggested the reason Ford did so badly in the debate was his lack of a costed plan.
If the only place the the NDP can scoop votes from are the PCs then, those disgruntled conservatives who are ticked off at the party as a whole might just get us an NDP government.
https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/onvotes/poll-tracker/
LikeLike
Liberals have much in common with the NDP, Conservative voters have little choice.
Conservatives have a penchant for publicly dissing their leader after that leader is chosen which is not very clever. We need to get over it and support the political doctrine we believe in. We are not socialists or socialist light. A socialist government will really kill the province in the state it is in right now.
LikeLike
You’re right Liz J. Something people forget is that what Ford has done so far, he’s done in a very short time frame. Consider where we were as a party just two short months ago and instead of dissing the leader we should be more grateful.
If Patrick Brown were leader I’d be considering throwing my vote to someone else this time.
One thing that struck me when I saw that photo yesterday of some of the PC candidates around the table with Ford was that in posting that image two things crossed my mind 1) the strength of our candidates/front bench in government and 2) Doug is telling us in pictures that the PCs are NOT about him. It’s as much about those around him and that’s a HUGE contrast to Wynne for starters……and Trudeau eventually.
LikeLike
Great point. Ford has a strong team.
LikeLike
The other important thing to remember is that Ford is not trying to appeal to Bay St., he’s appealing to Main Street everyday people in language people on the ground can understand.
LikeLike
On the federal scene today, THIS is a disaster for our country. What Wynne did to Ontario, Trudeau is doing to Canada.
Trudeau becomes more beatable by the day IMO.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberals-trans-mountain-pipeline-kinder-morgan-1.4681911
LikeLike
Good news at least is Nanos for the first time since September 2015 shows the Tories in the lead and they are the most accurate pollster. Now the election is still 510 days away so a lot can happen but the idea of Trudeau being a one term PM was unthinkable a year ago, not so much anymore although far from certain the Tories will win.
Yes this is incredibly stupid. I support the pipeline, but you already had a private company willing to pay for it at no cost to the taxpayers. Government should have declared it the national interest and pushed it through. This is not the way to go about it.
LikeLike
This is like the gas plant scandal x 5. The liberals plan to spend $5B to sit on the project indefinitely. With no private company to state the project is cancelled the liberals will just say they are working on it and it’s on schedule. No news to report and make Trudeau look bad.
LikeLike
They should have just forced it through and let Kinder Morgan build it, this is incredibly stupid. Off course it also looks bad on Horgan too as well as Trudeau. It does seem nowadays those with lack of business sense are winning elections across the country which is unfortunate. While polls may suggest the tide is turning, after what we are seeing in Ontario I worry we still may be in for a rough ride as it seems when conservatives are less than perfect, many who initially leaned that way jump ship and swing over to the left.
LikeLike
The liberals plan to spend $5B to sit on the project indefinitely.
That’s it exactly, Greg.
LikeLike
Nobody has explained the logic of how government takeover = we’ll get the pipeline built. All I’ve heard is platitudes – national interest blah, blah blah. No actual plan to do anything different. Even if it does get done, it makes no sense to have it run by the government. I can smell the cronyism from 1000’s of miles and many years away. Can you imagine Gerald Butts, multimillionaire CEO of this new corporation?
LikeLike