New Season; New beginnings?

Since autumn is starting and the MPs are back in Parliament, I thought I’d put up a new post. Andrew Scheer seems like he’s finding his way as Leader of the Official Opposition.

I watched question period yesterday and Bill Morneau seems very weak in his defense of the tax changes and how they would affect small business.

In Ontario this will become even more onerous when compounded with Kathleen Wynne’s carbon tax, high hydro rates and minimum wage increases.

The conservative leaders in provincial and federal politics have been handed gifts here since the economy is right in their wheelhouse. Let’s hope they make good use of the opportunity.

Advertisements
This entry was posted in Big Government, Canadian Economy, Canadian Government, Canadian Politics, Conservative Party of Canada, Ontario Government, Provincial Politics. Bookmark the permalink.

94 Responses to New Season; New beginnings?

  1. Liz J says:

    I doubt either Trudeau or Morneau have much insight into the world of small business in the first place. What’s behind the curtain advising them is more of the same. This is the worst possible “team” to be in charge, all small business people have to be on edge.

    Like

  2. Miles Lunn says:

    I hope so too. Obviously Trudeau tends to do well on his image, but hopefully Scheer can point to many of his weaknesses and people will focus more on policy than image. Yes the economy is doing well in Canada at the moment, but much of that is due to real estate and oil prices rebounding not Trudeau having great policies and with Canada having record levels of personal debt there is a real risk we could get hit quite hard down the road. It takes time to change perceptions of leaders and while the polls may seem depressing, think where we were a year ago. Liberals had a 20 instead of 10 point lead, Trudeau had an approval rating over 60% instead of just barely over 50% so numbers are at least long term moving in the right direction even if slowly.

    Interestingly enough on the tax proposal the NDP is even opposing it not because they are against the changes but argue the timeframe and lack of consultation for something this complex is way too short and they are right. Any policy change as big as this should be done carefully not rushed, but I suspect Trudeau choose the timing as he is worried about Jagmeet Singh pulling away many left leaning voters so needs to create a distraction to depress the NDP vote. Most Liberals I know seem to think the Blue Liberals even if they are don’t like Trudeau will still vote for them as they will be able to paint Scheer as a right wing extremist and this is where we need to prove them wrong. Not suggesting Scheer be liberal lite, just make sure we hit them hard on their weaknesses and give them as little ammo to attack us back. They will try to paint us as right wing extremists, but if it smacks of desperation it will backfire whereas if Canadians think it is at least plausible it will work. The reason Liberal attack ads worked in 2004, but 2006 is in 2004 most probably didn’t actually think Harper was extreme as the Liberals painted him as, rather they thought there was a possibility and didn’t want to take the risk, whereas by 2006 he defined himself well enough that it just smacked of desperation. Otherwise essentially Scheer needs to avoid doing what Hudak did last provincial election.

    Like

  3. Miles Lunn says:

    In other news, Diane Watts will be resigning her seat to run for the BC Liberal leadership. She was a popular mayor of Surrey and likely saved us that riding federally which probably would have gone Liberal otherwise. I think at least as a BC resident that is a good thing as I believe she is well suited to beat the NDP in the next provincial election, but if you are a Tory outside of BC you might not be so happy. Both Gerry Ritz and Rona Ambrose’s riding are safe ones which we should hold, but Watt’s and Lebel’s less so and so while I hope we hold both, there is a risk of both flipping to the Liberals. Of the two open Liberal ones, Judy Foote’s is a safe one while Arnold Chan’s looks safe on paper but was actually one of the few ridings in Ontario that we outperformed our 2011 percentage so with a favourable trend an upset there cannot be ruled out. I also for BC think having someone from outside caucus probably helps as no baggage from the previous administration as well as being from the Lower Mainland is a plus two since the BC Liberals gained seats in the Interior, asides from 2001 have always been weak on Vancouver Island, while it was the seat losses in the Lower Mainland that cost them their majority is a good thing.

    I also have another blog post up and it does mention Trudeau’s arrogance on the tax plan. I am glad to see some pushback from other Liberal MPs and at least gives me faint hope that maybe there will be a limit on what he will do. More importantly I hope the next Liberal leader is more centrist in the Chretien/Martin mold. Even if I don’t plan on voting Liberal, I know there is always a chance of them winning so better to have a leader we can live with who won’t do too much damage than one who we cannot.

    Like

  4. gabbyinqc says:

    I’m afraid I have a less than optimistic POV on the new session.
    1. Generally speaking, Canadians seem enamoured with Trudeau’s style. They apparently couldn’t care less about policies that will eventually harm them, like carbon taxes, “reformed” tax system, purchasing second-hand military equipment (remember those previously owned submarines?), hurriedly legalizing pot to fill empty government coffers, and motion m-103, to mention a few. Again generally speaking, Canadians seem enthralled by the attention Trudeau is getting internationally, as if the mantle of celebrity included them personally, lifting an aura of inferiority from them.

    2. Some Conservative politicians continue to make ill-advised personal comments (Barbie), knowing full well the MSM will hound them until they’re made to retract those comments to the media’s satisfaction. Why they expose themselves to critics’ demands for apologies is beyond me.

    3. However, why should Andrew Scheer be called upon to apologize for something a member of caucus says, inane as it may be? Scheer should have responded that caucus members speak as one when it comes to party policy but are free to express individual opinions, silly as they may be, on other matters. Regardless, Scheer should have added, I understand the so-called offender has already issued a personal apology. End of story.

    4. As a champion of freedom of speech, though, Andrew Scheer appears to be wavering. Senator Lynne Beyak, who has been questioning the handling of Indigenous issues, is being ostracized for
    a. pointing out that not all residential schools had a deleterious effect on all attendees.
    b. wanting to hold leaders of First Nations communities accountable for their budgets.
    c. for echoing the Liberals’ past policy of getting rid of the Indian Act.

    5. Because of Sen. Beyak’s apparent shunning, I am no longer going to make my usual 3-digit donation to the party, which I have been making since the beginning of this century. That is my personal decision. I am not suggesting other BLY commenters do the same. In a previous comment on another thread, I regretted some conservatives sat out the last election because their pet cause was not advanced fast enough or at all. Now I seem to be in the same boat. Thing is … we conservatives have to understand what we stand for and not cower every time the MSM says “boo”. I’m tired of us conservatives being labelled as racists, xenophobes, islamophobes, misogynists, climate deniers, fascists, alt-right, nazis who must lose their place in the public space. However, as I have also stated before on other threads, I do not believe in absolute freedom of speech. Tone, good manners, humour, logical arguments, FACTS — not ad hominems — should be our weapons, not silly name-calling.

    Like

    • Miles Lunn says:

      Interesting take. Very frustrating how well the left is doing on pretty much every issue. What’s even more concerning is it seems once you leave Canada’s borders they are faring poorly so this whole swing to the left seems to be largely a Canadian phenomenon. Yes people will point to Sanders and Corbyn of examples of it working elsewhere but neither actually won even if they came close in their own way. My concern is more economics as opposed to political correctness. What made Canada a great country is we encouraged entrepreneurship and risk taking whereas with Trudeau he seems to be now saying, it’s great to work hard and take risks but once you reach the middle class you need to stop, you do any better than that we are going to confiscate what you earn as it needs to redistributed to others and I fear this attitude will hurt us in the long-run. Also saw a campaign research poll on ideas and it asked if one approved capitalism vs. disapproved and the same with socialism and the number who approved and disapproved of capitalism and socialism was about the same overall, but amongst millennials socialism beat capitalism 2 to 1 so very worrisome future.

      If Marc Garneau or Martha Hall Findlay were Liberal leader, we may not agree with all their policies, but they wouldn’t be an embarrassment. I don’t find the international attention we are getting to be good, I find it an embarrassment we have such a lightweight celebrity as our PM.

      Like

    • joannebly says:

      “Generally speaking, Canadians seem enamoured with Trudeau’s style. They apparently couldn’t care less about policies that will eventually harm them, like carbon taxes…”

      So true Gabby. Which tells me many Canadians are shallow and don’t take the time to really investigate the issues and their impact. Someday they will learn but it may be too late.

      Like

  5. ed says:

    I like Andrew Scheer. Have been following him since his election. I find he handles himself quite well. Watched him on Question Period and he was very good. Yes, first impressions.

    I don’t cry for Argentina. I cry for Ontario. Why is it so difficult to find a “real” leader for the PC party?

    It seems that young people prefer style over content. How do you change that? Is it possible to find a Canadian with style and content??

    A threat to western democracy = one-sided media — in Canada and the USA??

    Excellent point made by Gabby: “Again generally speaking, Canadians seem enthralled by the attention Trudeau is getting internationally, as if the mantle of celebrity included them personally, lifting an aura of inferiority from them.”

    It certainly seems that way. My reaction: I put a bag over my head every time I see him in the news. Surely, something is not right.

    Like

  6. Liz J says:

    I may be thick but I can never accept the patronizing practice of politicians apologizing for the misdeeds of others in another time. We can talk about it, we can learn from it but we can only apologize for our own regrettable acts.

    Like

  7. joannebly says:

    Well my attention will be diverted from here for the next couple of days. I apologize in advance if any comments get stuck in the filter. Looking forward to catching up with all of you later.

    Like

  8. Ruth says:

    today, our Prime Minister and family are making a big show of themselves at the International Plowing Match in Ontario. With the cost of the PM travelling anywhere and the reporters that follow him, I think it’s time for them to stay in Ottawa and only do trips that are necessary for government work. Enough with going to stupid parades and everything else that is costing us a fortune for security and travel.

    Like

    • Liz J says:

      All politicians seem to like to attend the plowing matches. Ms Wynne has already had her photo-op on a big tractor, Trudeau and family will make a bigger showing. It’s pure political opportunism, nothing more

      It’s farcical to be using such events to make political hay in the first place. It reminds me of Iggy when he said would spend some time going out to smell the barns. They don’t realize, farmers are very good at detecting BS.

      The people at the match were not in love with Wynne judging by media clips of the rural folk giving their opinions. They were not impressed.

      Like

      • Liz J says:

        I’m reminded also of an old Red Skelton line that might apply here, if the politicos catch the mood of the people: “Let’s get out of the wheat field Nellie, we’re going against the grain”.

        Liked by 1 person

  9. Liz J says:

    It’s been my observation our Prime Minister has mastered the art of non answers, this, coupled with his drama training, is what’s carrying him through.

    When you have media talking about his socks you know what’s really important to the people who voted for him in the first place!

    Like

  10. Miles Lunn says:

    Here is something to cheer us up http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2782/federal-horserace-september-2017/ If only it were true, but unfortunately with other polls giving totally different numbers I am bit skeptical this might be a rogue poll nonetheless lets hope they are picking up on a trend. More importantly I don’t think most Canadians outside of election cycles follow politics too closely so if anything varied poll numbers say campaigns matter and so while we are up against a lot when facing Trudeau if we play our cards right we might pull off an upset.

    Like

    • gabbyinqc says:

      “More importantly I don’t think most Canadians outside of election cycles follow politics too closely …”
      You’re right … but a lot of them form opinions from a few sound bytes from talk radio or evening news broadcasts. Here in my neck of the woods most of the radio personalities on the station I listen to love Trudeau and continually bash Trump and anything connected to conservative ideology. Not that I’m a Trump fan, but the constant criticism of the man and repetition of whatever the American late-night show hosts dish out on a regular basis nears a form of indoctrination.

      Like

      • Miles Lunn says:

        Whereabouts if I may ask in Quebec are you? My understanding is Quebec City tends to have a fairly strongly conservative base but the Montreal area is overwhelmingly left wing. The two ridings I’ve lived are hard core left wing, first Fort York-Spadina while I was in Toronto and now Vancouver Centre in Vancouver although to be fair at least the suburbs of Toronto and Vancouver are more mixed. Provincially though my riding, Vancouver-False Creek narrowly voted for the centre-right BC Liberals although it includes lots of high end condo owners who tend to be fairly progressive, but fiscally conservative so will go Liberal over Conservatives, but Conservative over NDP. Mind you if federal boundaries were used Vancouver Centre would have gone solidly NDP provincially as it includes the West End which is in a separate riding provincially.

        I guess my point though is with the media could it be a reflection of where you live or is it a bigger trend. I do think social media more so than mainstream media plays a bigger role nowadays and I think social media has a strong leftist tilt mainly due to the fact it is dominated by millennials. It does seem the left are very good at getting their message out.

        Like

        • gabbyinqc says:

          I’m in Montreal. I believe the media bias is very real & is found at the local as well as the national level. At times I think the radio station I referred to may have been given its marching orders, as it’s owned by a major communications company.

          As for social media, I’ve come to this conclusion: the reason those who use it most lean left & towards socialism is because they equate SOCIALmedia with SOCIALism, one and the same. Both a good thing, no? 😉

          Also, maybe we conservatives, me included, tend to be too individualistic at times, shying away from joining movements or organizations. I don’t know, just speculation on my part.

          Like

          • I kind of figured as Montreal if you look at it’s voting history leans quite left. I think in Quebec City their talk radio leans right as I’ve found in many other parts of Canada talk radio leans right while other forms left.

            As for social media I think it has more to do with age demographics. Millennials in Canada for a variety of reasons are very left wing and they are overrepresented in the social media. Conservatives are strongest amongst the silent generation which is rapidly shrinking in influence.

            Like

  11. gabbyinqc says:

    @MilesLunn tweeted:
    “He is virtue signaling also hoping he can spread his ideas globally. But recent elections suggest parties on the right not left win elsewhe”
    I’m still trying to learn how to use Twitter effectively, so I’m posting my reply to your reaction to my tweet here instead. I hope Joanne doesn’t mind!
    Of course, that is Justin Trudeau’s stock in trade: boasting how great Canada is under his tutelage and how bad it was under previous governments, especially the last one. Without question, he is signalling he is going to single-handedly solve the Indigenous problems that have plagued other governments before his. But if he truly wanted to “spread his ideas globally” he could have appealed to his UN audience not to repeat Canada’s past mistakes in dealing with human rights, denouncing violations like FGM, honour killings, and terrorist attacks throughout the world, including in many Muslim countries perpetrated by their own governments.

    Surprisingly, even someone like @DonMartinCTV criticized Trudeau on today’s QP for devoting such a large part of his speech to the Indigenous issue. Not too much criticism from the rest of the scrummers though, especially on Trudeau’s mention re: his government’s tax reform. In contrast, the media were all a-tizzy when Stephen Harper intimated in Davos Switzerland (2012) that his government might reform Canada’s pension system. What more appropriate place than at a World Economic Forum to talk about the unsustainability of the pension system? But the commentariat went crazy!

    Like

    • Miles Lunn says:

      I find the problem with twitter is the 140 character limit thus why I started my own blog. Agree with much of what you said and on indigenous issues that is a very complicated one as lets remember in most countries in the world, the dominant ethnic group is also usually the indigenous one, only a minority of countries are like Canada where the indigenous group is different from the dominant today or as in our case we are a mix. I think on the tax reform, he brought that up as his audience at home wants him to soak the rich, but he realizes you put taxes on the rich too high, they move elsewhere so he is hoping other countries follow in his foot step in raising taxes on the rich so there will be less incentive to move elsewhere. Off course considering outside of Canada most governments in the OECD are centre-right as opposed to centre-left doubt that will happen. Of the other leaders in the developed world most on the political spectrum fall somewhere in between Harper and Trudeau. While Harper was hardly extreme, he was to the right of most leaders in the developed world although a lot of that probably has to do with electoral systems as in PR countries you need to form a coalition so most conservative parties there tend to chose what we would call Red Tories knowing anything beyond that will make forming a coalition harder. That being said the fact Trudeau is to the left of most leaders in the developed world and perhaps the most left wing of the G7 leaders should be worrisome.

      As for Harper’s decision to raise the OAS age, while the location was not probably the best, it made a lot of sense economically as we are living longer. In fact 23 of 34 OECD countries have raised their retirement age while the only other country to raise theirs and have it cancelled by a future government was Poland so Trudeau’s decision to drop OAS back to 65 is really out of step with others. We are living longer so asking people to work a little longer doesn’t seem unreasonable. Unfortunately it feels in Canada more so than others, we have a nation of far too many entitled types who are more concerned what will government offer them and they want someone else to pay for it. Kind of sad as we used to be an entrepreneurial risk taking country where most had the drive to succeed, but it seems today we have far more freeloaders than makers. Yes people try to play the compassion card and I am all for Canada doing more to help those who are truly struggling, but we should be helping those in the bottom 10% not the middle class. If you are in the middle class in Canada, you are some of the luckiest people to ever walk this planet so if you want to move further up, you need to do it yourself not ask the government to do it for you.

      Like

  12. Liz J says:

    Whatever people think of Trump, his speech to the UN was unmatched IMO. He went after all the trouble makers in the World today. How can anyone in our Western democracies be against that?
    It’s sad when we have people apologizing for agreeing with common sense, speaking the truth, calling it as it is. I make no apologies, I don’t think Trump is the demon or dummy the Left make him out to be.

    Like

  13. Liz J says:

    I might add, yes, he’s crude, he’s rude, but he is getting attention in many areas most politicians are afraid to even mention.Political correctness counts for nothing but going with the flow, not hitting on issues that really need to be taken seriously and require serious intervention by governments. The people need to figure it all out before they vote instead listening to media or pollsters.

    Like

  14. Liz J says:

    Love your blog Joanne….hope my above comments don’t get me blocked!

    Like

    • joannebly says:

      Thanks Liz. I have absolutely no problem with people expressing their opinion. It’s all about being civil which you are. And I find myself agreeing with you on many points.

      This is a space where free speech is encouraged and so far I haven’t actually had to block anyone! The filter has some preset parameters but once they’re met there shouldn’t be any problem.

      Like

  15. joannebly says:

    And I am still bogged down with real-life problems but keeping an eye on things here. Someday I might do a post about hiring a roofing company. Grrrrrr….

    Like

  16. Liz J says:

    Anyone else wondering what we are paying for Wynne’s prime time TV ads telling us all about her programs? The jingle all about a place to stand, a place to grow, Ontareeeeeo has been running for months.

    Like

    • Miles Lunn says:

      Interesting, I do though first remember seeing these back in February 2010 during the winter Olympics and I guess then I didn’t think much about it as there was no upcoming election, but certainly now seems strange. Nonetheless I did hear the Liberals spent $5.5 million on advertising about lower hydro rates http://www.torontosun.com/2017/09/25/liberals-spending-55m-on-ads-touting-hydro-bill-cuts . One of the promises the PCs should make is they will establish an arms length agency for government advertising who will ensure it is a public service announcement and anything that is seen as partisan in nature will be blocked.

      Like

  17. Liz J says:

    As for their much advertised break in hydro rates, someone will pay down the road, it’s a mess piled onto a mess.

    Like

  18. Miles Lunn says:

    FWIW, Nanos out today suggests Forum is maybe onto something. Liberal lead was 10.9 last week, down to 6 this week and note Forum is a snapshot poll while Nanos is a four week rolling poll meaning only 1/4 is the last week, 3/4 are the earlier three weeks. It seems the Liberals tax policies and class warfare is doing a good job at pushing down the NDP, but is possibly alienating some Blue Liberals and Red Tories. I think Jagmeet Singh and his appeal amongst millennials terrified Liberals so they went leftward to push down the NDP forgetting it is the centre, not left where elections are won and lost. Also millennials will be the largest portion of the electorate but still even in 2019, 63% of those eligible to vote will be born before 1980 so winning big amongst the millennials won’t work if they lose badly amongst older voters. And older voters unlike millennials generally understand socialism doesn’t work.

    Like

  19. Liz J says:

    Patrick Brown went after Wynne on an issue we really don’t have much problem with…how hot is too hot in the schools? Don’t expect much to come of that, common sense should kick in on such issues, we need to drum on the big stuff.

    Like

  20. gabbyinqc says:

    Today I watched QP in its entirety. IMO, Pierre Poilievre is the best debater among the Conservatives. He is one of the very few MPs who actually listen to what an opponent says and he comes back with a pointed retort, at times humorous. He also has a good sonorous voice and does not speak excessively fast, like some Conservatives do. Justin Trudeau’s tired cliché about “the middle class and those working hard to join it” plus the other one about “that’s what Canadians elected us for and that’s what we intend to do” did not sidetrack MP Poilievre in the least.

    Like

    • Miles Lunn says:

      David Akin on twitter was pointing out how the Liberal backbench didn’t look so enthusiastic. I think this might be taking its toll on them. I don’t know if it just me, but when I listen to Trudeau’s rhetoric on taxing the rich, it sounds like I am listening to an NDP leader not Liberal. This is something you would expect from a self proclaimed socialist like Bernie Sanders or Jeremy Corbyn, not something you expect from a Liberal. I doubt you would see Chretien, Martin, or Turner talking like that. Likewise in Quebec, I don’t believe Philippe Couillard or his predecessor Jean Charest ever played up the class warfare rhetoric. It seems the Liberals are moving left to push down the NDP, but I think if we play our cards right we have a golden opportunity to pick up some of the Blue Liberal votes.

      Like

      • gabbyinqc says:

        Despite the fact that Trudeau was spouting the usual platitudes & clichés, I think his forceful “it’s just not fair” that some people can avail themselves of ways of paying less tax will persuade some voters. Whether he admits it or not, he’s appealing to class distinctions & ultimately, envy.

        I may be wrong … but in addition to pointing out that the “tax reform” hurts middle class people, the Conservatives should try to knock down Trudeau’s argument that only a small number or percentage of people are affected by the tax changes. Just because the measures involve 1% or less does not make that measure right. That “small minority” argument points to another Liberal hypocrisy: aren’t they the party that portray themselves as the protectors of minorities? It appears Trudeau’s Liberals have fully embraced the “tyranny of the majority” in this case.

        Like

        • Miles Lunn says:

          Unfortunately it seems the left today which is both the Liberals and NDP is about trying to play the idea of being the savior to the little guy. Otherwise convince people those above them are holding them down and thus they need to go after them when that is not true. I am all for doing more to reduce poverty, but this has nothing to do with that, it’s more about reducing income inequality and unlike many on the left I think this whole idea our incomes should be fairly equal is silly. We should help bring those up at the bottom not bring those down at the top which unfortunately seems to be what many on the left are trying to do. As for the tyranny of the majority, it is all what group you are from and if from a group labeled disadvantaged the Liberals will help you but if labeled as advantaged they go after you. How about just adopt the best policies for the country as a whole and forget about dividing people into different groups.

          Like

  21. Liz J says:

    Mr Morneau is a well educated man, his background makes him well qualified for the job, however this is politics, where qualified people get “managed”by the back room crew. It could be a risky venture for their reputation.

    Like

    • Miles Lunn says:

      Yeah agreed he does seem like well qualified and considering how badly he has fumbled this, I think he might not even believe half of the stuff he is saying. Usually if you believe in something you can do a much better job communicating it than if you don’t. I think on the small business tax change it is Gerald Butts who is pulling this as he is a big fan of class warfare. He was also close to Steve Bannon in the Trump administration who more or less argued populism is the way of the future and that it will be a battle between your Trump like ones on the right and Corbyn like ones on the left and as you can see a lot of the rhetoric Trudeau is using is very similar to Corbyn and Sanders.

      Interestingly enough Angus-Reid poll out today also shows Liberals facing trouble too. Andrew Steele in the Globe and Mail had an interesting article on this arguing Trudeau is really going after the millennials who generally lean left and certainly the polls show he is still strong amongst them but losing amongst older voters. The problem is just because the millennials are the largest voter pool in 2019 doesn’t mean winning amongst them guarantees a win. If Generation X, Baby Boomers, and the Silent Generation swing against the Liberals they are toast. Corbyn won millennials by 40 points but still lost as older voters remember his type of policies from the 70s and voted strongly against him.

      Like

      • Greg says:

        I really think they have made a strategic mistake with these new tax rules. I work for an accounting firm, we’ve spent many many hours since the announcement making plans, developing strategies and contacting our clients to plan ways around it. We have a significant Doctor, Dentist and other professionals practice and they are either extremely PO’d or extremely worried. I personally work with many small business owners and most of them are nowhere near the ‘1%’. They want blood. Anyone who visits their doctor or visits a small business owner will likely hear about it.

        Like

        • Liz J says:

          If they’re paying attention to the recent polling we might see a lot of tweaking going on. It’s not going to work as presented…..to quote one of their favourite phrases, “it’s just not fair”. It’s hitting farmers, small businesses and professional practices across the board.

          Like

        • joannebly says:

          Wow. It seems that Butts and company really missed the mark on this one. I hope this means the beginning of the end of the Trudeau regime.

          Like

          • Miles Lunn says:

            I hope so too. I think if you read Andrew Steele’s Globe and Mail column, Trudeau is trying to appeal to millennials forgetting most older Liberals are centrists not left wingers so winning big amongst millennials won’t cut it if you lose badly amongst older voters. He is trying to copy Bernie Sanders and Jeremy Corbyn forgetting despite both doing much better than expectations both still lost. Otherwise they may have appealed strongly to the millennials, but older voters have seen their policies tried and said thanks but no thanks. If Butts looked at the three Western provinces with right/left polarization he would notice Liberal support split pretty evenly between the NDP and the centre-right alternative (BC Liberals, Saskatchewan Party, and Manitoba PCs) and likewise across the pond, the implosion of the Liberal Democrats benefited both parties equally with Labour picking up most of the younger LibDem voters but most senior LibDems went over to the Tories. Also Wynne and Notley who are following Trudeau’s policies have terrible approval ratings. The only premier on the left with somewhat decent is John Horgan and even with him his approval ratings are quite low when you consider he has only been premier for about 70 days never mind as much as I hate to praise the BC NDP, they do seem a bit more cautious and centrist than the federal Liberals and that is saying a lot.

            Still Trudeau leads on best PM and his approval rating is in the 45-50% range so while I like the trends, Scheer has to make a strong case to the public why he would do a better job and also get out in front of the cameras more. If an election were held today, I still think the Liberals would win, it’s a question of whether it would be a minority or majority. I think the Tories would however gain seats, but this would be cancelled out by Liberal gains of NDP seats (mostly in Quebec).

            I think if we plan to drop the top rate, we should use these slogans, we want to attract the top talent from around the world and a top combined rate of over 50% is confiscation (using the term Mulcair did which is correct) and will make us less attractive for top talent. Or another one, we will cut top rates to the levels of Germany and Norway, both countries the left likes the champion as models so throw it back in their face.

            On a final note, I should have my next posting up tomorrow or Saturday, just waiting for it to be edited.

            Like

  22. Anne in swON says:

    I think Ontario numbers, which are down for the government, just may be a harbinger of things to come. Approval remains higher in BC, Quebec and the Atlantic provinces. Ontario is the key so let’s keep an eye to see if this continues. If so the alarm bells will sound in Ottawa.

    Like

    • Miles Lunn says:

      In BC it’s mixed bag but the Tories have been for the past five years weaker there than Ontario. I’ve found you have a bigger generational divide in BC with senior’s being more conservative than Ontario seniors but millennials in BC tend to be more left wing than in Ontario so that is probably the reason for the shift. Also you have a strong coast vs. interior divide as you saw in the last provincial election. As for Atlantic Canada, yes the Liberals have a big lead, but every poll shows the Tories doing better than the 19% they got last election so while I highly doubt we will beat the Liberals in Atlantic Canada next time around, I do think we can stop them from having another clean sweep. Quebec is always a challenge for us, but support is quite fluid and soft there. The only concern with Ontario is it has a tendency to vote opposite at federal and provincial levels so if the PCs win next June, which I hope they do, hopefully that doesn’t cause some to swing back to the Liberals federally. I tried using the Forum and Angus-reid numbers in a simulator and got a Tory minority of around 155 seats and Liberals around 135 seats. Off course Ipsos had 39% Liberals and 32% Conservatives but either way I at least like the direction even though I still don’t think we would beat the Liberals today, but could reduce them to a minority and with two years to go, there is plenty of time to turn things in our favour. After all last year, Trudeau had a +30 in net approval rating and a 20 point lead in the polls so things are moving in the right direction.

      Like

  23. Wondering what others think of the Tories trying to approach some of the unhappy Liberal MP’s to cross the floor. I think if we got a few Blue Liberals to cross the floor it would be a great way to argue the party has abandoned it’s centrist roots and swung to the left. While I know some may not be keen on Liberals joining the party I think each one we can pick off strengthens our case the Liberals are a left wing not centrist party and when people believe the Tories are facing a left wing party they are far more likely to vote for us than if they think we are facing a centrist one.

    Like

    • Liz J says:

      If Morneau stays with his ill conceived tax plan we won’t need to worry about nabbing floor crossers.
      Realizing political leaders and cabinet ministers have advisers, they also have to have enough knowledge to recognize bad advice.

      Like

  24. Liz J says:

    On another note, would someone tell me why Hillary Clinton has come to Toronto to flog her book?
    I guess we all know the answer, but really, she needs to get over it, get over herself and retire gracefully. File under too late.

    Like

    • Greg says:

      Toronto = high percentage of suckers with money to burn. I seem to recall that our idiot in chief donated money to the Clinton’s scam foundation – after she lost. Tax money, not his own money of course.

      Like

  25. Anne in swON says:

    Apparently Bill Morneau’s Q & A in Oakville suffered a serious case of ‘blowback’ from attendees. I wonder whether he’ll be willing to stick it out much longer. And things are about to become very bleak for Morneau and Trudeau according to Dr. Jack Mintz. http://www.nationalpost.com/m/jack+mintz+trump+bombshell+going+blow+canada+competitiveness/14914854/story.html

    Like

    • joannebly says:

      I don’t think Butts and company ever expected this kind of blow-back. He probably thought this would be a great strategic move to bring in more leftwing voters. But he’s causing the Blue Liberals to become shaky IMHO.

      Like

  26. Liz J says:

    It’s not a very bright idea to hit the people who provide jobs with penalizing taxation, they just move out, close up or whatever it takes to deal with it. They are encouraging growth in the underground economy as well.

    I’m betting Morneau is going to be having a chat with his advisers…he may want to save his reputation as well..going to be interesting to watch over the next little while. People are really stirred up.

    Like

    • joannebly says:

      Then there’s this: Redistribution is the new tax relief. From the Fraser Institute.

      Like

      • Liz J says:

        That’s a convoluted mess you’d expect from a government trying to fool the people.

        When I hear Trudeau said this or Trudeau explained that I can’t accept that anything he says is more than relaying a message from the brains…..for wont of a better term, behind the curtain. I fear they have no idea where this will lead….it’s a shot in the dark.
        Somebody is going to pay and it could be the very people they say they are helping.

        Like

        • joannebly says:

          Yes if the reason behind this is simply crass politics, then it’s unforgivable.

          Like

          • Miles Lunn says:

            He is trying to play to people’s envies knowing there are more employees than employers otherwise traditional class warfare. As one guy in a video at the town hall says, those making 50K wouldn’t have jobs if those with 250K didn’t exist. While extreme examples, Venezuela and Cuba is what you get when drive all the rich out so soaking the rich may feel good for some but the end results never work will. France tried this approach under Francois Hollande and it was an unmitigated disaster. I get the impression Trudeau sees millennials as more left wing and looking at the success of Sanders and Corbyn he thinks running on such a platform will motivate the millennials to show up. What he forgets is most older Liberals are centrists not left wing and such approach may push them over to the Tories. The reason neither Sanders or Corbyn are leaders of their respective countries is older voters massively rejected both. Andrew Steele had an interesting article in the Globe and Mail on this more or less saying Trudeau is writing off Generation X, Baby Boomers, and Silent Generation and focusing on the millennials who will be the largest cohort in 2019. Lets hope he is proven wrong.

            Like

          • joannebly says:

            Just found that article. Thanks.

            Hope he’s wrong too!

            Like

  27. Liz J says:

    We are seeing more and more examples of arrogance from the Liberals with their we know best attitude….it never works.

    Like

  28. Liz J says:

    So we have had a terror attack in Edmonton. Our Prime Minister has spoken…haven’t read all he said but apparently he mentioned something about “strength in diversity”…not too appropriate.
    This is beyond diversity, we have terrorists in our midst, they don’t like us, they will terrorize and kill us.
    Ralph Goodale should come out with his head bobbing soon to utter some more inane drivel on the subject.
    We will not cower, yadda, yadda, pardon me fellas but it think I will, now more than ever.

    Like

    • joannebly says:

      Lots going on with this story!

      Like

    • Anne in swON says:

      Just one quick question for our esteemed (cough, cough) prime minister: “Is it OK to be just a little Islamophobic today?” Asking for a friend.

      Like

      • Miles Lunn says:

        I think it would be best to condemn the attack and argue for stronger security but be careful to still be tolerant to Muslims. I see it this way, Islamophobia might help us gain in Rural Quebec, but outside Quebec the only areas it might work is rural Ontario and rural West which is already largely Tory. To win the next election, we need to win back the 905 belt and Lower Mainland suburbs and those are ethnically diverse areas thus lets focus on economic issues where the Liberals are vulnerable. I actually think we could do quite well amongst the Muslim community as a lot of them are small business owners and I think the Liberal tax changes will anger many of them. That being said certainly with immigration and refugees we can do a better job of screening and find ways to fix holes as well as also work with communities so if someone is turning to radicalism authorities are notified before something happens. We also have to remember Trump is really unpopular in Canada, even if some here may like him, and we don’t want to be tagged as the Trump party of the north. That is in some ways why I prefer a Democrat president in the US than GOP as I find we tend to do better as the Liberals have less ammo to attack us with. Off course having a GOP president doesn’t prevent us from winning, Mulroney won twice with one and Harper won in 2006 and 2008 with Bush in power so it still is doable, but we cannot be seen as too similar. Now I am not opposed to all GOP leaders, in fact during the primaries I was hoping John Kasich would win and I think of the final four in the GOP and final two in the Democrats, Kasich was without question the most qualified and would have been the best president of those six. Otherwise in sum lets dislike the terrorists and radicals not all Muslims. There are many good ones like Tarek Fatah who has been very critical of the more radical elements so we should work with the more moderate ones like him.

        Like

      • Liz J says:

        We need to be wary, if that’s called “Islamophobic” so be it. Trust is something that smart people realize can be lost and cannot be bought or bought back, it must be earned.

        This “lone wolf” moniker is done to “death”, these murderers are part of a hate driven murderous cult in the name of Islam.

        Like

  29. Miles Lunn says:

    Jagmeet Singh has won the NDP on first ballot so what are your thoughts on that. As long as the Liberals don’t implode completely (I worry if this happens he might win outright), I believe his choice will be good for us. He should pull away some of the millennial votes thus helping us on vote splits. Also it seems Trudeau is worried about him so moving leftward and thus creating opportunities for us to pull away some of the Blue Liberal voters.

    Like

    • joannebly says:

      I think it’s awesome that Jagmeet won! Good for him. He is younger than Justin and from a more diverse community!

      Like

      • Miles Lunn says:

        Actually Justin Trudeau is the oldest of the three party leaders. All of them are close to my age and they all probably look younger than me (I am now bald unlike them although to be fair both my Grandpas were so it was a given I would be) even if slightly older. Quite a contrast with Britain where all their leaders will be over 65 next election (May born in 1952, Corbyn in 1949, and Cable in 1943) or the last US election where both candidates were over 65. Also you are right about the diverse community, it could definitely help in Brampton and Surrey which have large Sikh communities and also with a strong conservative base but not enough to win on its own maybe he will split the vote enough in the 905 and Lower Mainland suburbs to win. We got over 40% in most 905 ridings while around 1/3 in the Lower Mainland suburbs so stronger splits in the 905 could help us knock off cabinet ministers like Jane Phippott, Karina Gould, and Maryam Monsef. Off course if the Tories can pick up some Blue Liberal votes we might not need the splits as we will be close to 50% in those ridings.

        That being said I think the biggest challenge we face is hope one of the party’s can mount a challenge to Trudeau in Quebec since if he wins 60+ seats in Quebec it will be tough. People might be surprised but his father only won English Canada once, 1968. In the other elections he won, 1972, 1974, and 1980, the PCs actually got more seats in English Canada than the Liberals but due to the near sweep of Quebec Trudeau Sr., was able to win. Still I don’t think Singh wearing a turban is as big an obstacle in Quebec. In the regions of Quebec, the NDP won’t win there anyways so it’s Montreal which tends to be more cosmopolitan and more open to someone like him. It is really BC and Ontario where he could gain although the party might lose seats in BC if the provincial government becomes unpopular.

        Like

  30. Liz J says:

    When it comes to politicians I would hope people do not vote on their race or religion but rather their policies for the common good of all.

    Like

  31. Miles Lunn says:

    CAQ just won a landslide in the Louis-Hebert by-election while PQ and QS did poorly so if the polls are to believed it looks like the next Quebec election will be a fight between two fiscally conservative parties, Quebec Liberals and CAQ. Yes they maybe aren’t conservative per se, but they are not tax and spend liberals like Trudeau, Wynne, or Notley. Perhaps after years of slow growth due to left wing policies they are starting to wake up to the fact they don’t work. https://resultats.dgeq.org/resultatsPreliminaires.en.html

    Like

  32. Anne in swON says:

    It would seem that Donald Trump and the renegotiating of NAFTA could be Trudeau’s and the Liberals’ worst nightmare. According to Jamie Watt in the Toronto Star: “It is no secret that right now Canada and the U.S. are oceans apart on a variety of policy issues, including labour regulation, the environment and tariffs. These are more than mere disagreements; they are fundamental differences that underpin each government’s domestic position.

    These differences have the potential to cause major political headaches for Trudeau on the home front. Should the prime minister be perceived as not pushing hard enough on progressive causes, the NDP would happily step up to fill that void. If he pushes for inclusion of progressive policies, he risks losing the deal that underpins the Canadian economy.”

    Had there been a Conservative PM to renegotiate the agreement these leftist issues wold not have made it to the negotiating table at all. Trudeau needs to tread very carefully to avoid being run over by the Trump tank. What is he willing to forego to achieve a deal acceptable to his base and to the electorate as a whole? There’s a rocky road ahead for the boy king.

    Like

    • Anne in swON says:

      Oops, *would*.

      Like

    • Miles Lunn says:

      I am thinking the Liberals are going on the idea Trump is very unpopular in Canada so when it does fail they will blame him and somehow try to tie the Conservatives as being the Trump party of the North. Basically with their leftward turn, they are trying to depress the NDP vote. That means there is a risk the Blue Liberal vote might go over to the Tories and the only way to stop that is try to scare the Blue Liberals into holding their nose and voting Liberal, by claiming the Tories are right wing extremists. Off course I’ve found attacks against other parties only work if they appear plausible. If they smack of desperation they tend to backfire.

      I think with Singh and Trudeau likely to dominate the media attention on style, so we won’t win on that category, but it is policy where we can beat them not style. With our good fundraising, ground game will matter so I am hoping the party will start nominating candidates next spring so we will have time to identify as many voters as possible by the time the election rolls around. We won’t win the air war, but we can win the ground war with a better GOTV. Also not sure how much data provincial parties can share but due to how key Ontario is, finding out who voted PC provincially can be very helpful in the even they win (which I hope and they think they will) as most of those either are Tories federally or if not, they are probably at least open to voting Tory.

      Like

  33. Miles Lunn says:

    Singh has announced Guy Caron will be house leader and the one who leads asking questions in question period for the NDP. That is definitely good news as while I feel we can gain seats, I will admit the biggest thing standing in our way of winning is the Liberals look likely to dominate Quebec so if the NDP can do better in Quebec than that will make it easier to win. In 2006, had the Liberals won 50+ seats in Quebec, they would have stayed on but due to their poor showing in Quebec due to the sponsorship scandal and us gaining in English Canada allowed us to win a minority. Off course a majority would be nice, but that will be tough and I think with Scheer winning a minority and doing a good job might work out fine anyways in the first term and then majority second time around. Harper didn’t win a majority his first time around either.

    Like

    • joannebly says:

      I agree Miles. Good if NDP can reclaim some Quebec seats, and Bernier might be influential in doing the same for the Conservatives.

      I sense that many Canadians right across the country are becoming disillusioned with Trudeau. The opposition parties need to capitalize on that.

      Like

  34. Liz J says:

    Speaking of Quebec, they’re happy today, the Energy East Pipeline Project has been cancelled, The mayor of Montreal is very happy. Wonder where he and the rest of Quebec think their equalization payments will come from?

    This is getting strong negative reaction and it isn’t good for the Trudeau Liberals, they’re going to be wearing this right into the 2019.

    Like

    • Miles Lunn says:

      In Quebec, Energy East was not popular so helps the Liberals there, but in New Brunswick very popular and I think this along with business tax changes is a good opportunity to regain some of our lost seats there. Also I think if Wayne Long (Saint John-Rothesay) gets booted from the Liberals over voting against the tax changes, we should welcome him into our party as this would give us a seat in Atlantic Canada and as a small business owner himself seems like the type of Blue Liberals we need to win over.

      Like

  35. Greg says:

    Up above I mentioned that I work for an accounting firm and that there was a lot of concern among our small business owner clients regarding the new taxes. I just got copied on a list of those registered to attend an information session we are doing. Over 100, including doctors, lawyers and many well known local businesses. This is just from our local office which covers Kitchener/Waterloo and surrounding areas, and only one of many firms.

    Like

  36. Miles Lunn says:

    Liz Sandals and Deb Matthews are not seeking re-election, seems like rats jumping a sinking ship. Those are normally fairly safe Liberal ridings but I think both are winneable especially with a strong split on the left and as a bonus in Guelph Green Party leader Mike Schreiner is running there so three way split on left possibly. Only drawback is large university campus in both which tends to tilt leftwards. Nonetheless neither riding is key to winning a majority next year, winning either is just the icing on the cake. Still much like many MPs jumped ship from the Harper government in the final year, this suggests many don’t like their chances in 2018. The only time when a lot jumped and the party still won was BC in 2013, but then again polls showed the BC Liberals 20 points behind so few expected them to make the comeback they did. Nonetheless it seems the OLP is trying everything it can, but not much working. Also I am hoping with polls there is a slight chance we might be able to unseat Kathleen Wynne. That would be sweet if we could.

    Like

  37. Liz J says:

    After listening to Scott Brison mewl on, blaming the former Conservative government for the Phoenix disaster, I thought of a few words I cannot post here….

    Like

    • Miles Lunn says:

      I’ve been quite disappointed how he has turned out. I supported him for PC leadership back in 2003 when he actually ran on a bold free market platform, but has pretty much flip flopped and supported the more left wing policies of Trudeau. I understand at the time he was maybe reluctant to join the Conservatives as unfortunately too many on the Alliance side were quite homophobic at the time (since then I think attitudes have shifted quite dramatically on gay rights) but he could have just retired from politics and then once the party modernized came back rather than go over to the Liberals. Or at least once the Liberals chose Trudeau and swung leftward then retired from politics.

      Like

  38. gabbyinqc says:

    A windbag like Montreal mayor Denis Coderre does not speak for all of Quebec on the Energy East project. Marie Vastel, panelist on today’s Power & Politics, doesn’t either. Despite the reality polls don’t necessarily reflect popular opinion, still … http://montreal.ctvnews.ca/talkback/talkback-poll-results
    Do you agree with the cancellation of the Energy East pipeline project?
    Yes 46% No 54%

    Also, my understanding of the Alliance position on SSM was that they upheld the traditional definition of marriage but accepted civil unions. To brand “too many” Alliance members as “quite homophobic” is inaccurate and even unfair, IMO.

    Like

    • That looks like an online rather than scientific poll nonetheless if BC is anything to go by, it’s possible the majority support it as here in BC most support the Kinder Morgan pipeline despite the NDP’s opposition. I suspect in Quebec like elsewhere more popular in the suburbs and rural areas while most of opposition comes from the downtown core whose residents unlike elsewhere can walk and cycle everywhere. Unfortunately it seems the downtown core types are driving the agenda. In the last BC election, the NDP lost seats in the interior despite the fact the BC Liberals had been in power for 16 years and their losses were due to their anti-resource position. They only gained in the Lower Mainland suburbs due to skyrocketing housing prices and in the case of Surrey removal of bridge tolls, not anti-pipeline stance.

      As for the Alliance position, it was fine at the time (although not today as it is now legal), but the problem is many MP’s such as Larry Spencer had made homophobic remarks so I can understand Brison being uncomfortable. I too have been uncomfortable with the Reform Party and more right wing elements myself. I am right wing economically but left wing socially. I think the direction Brown is taking the Ontario PC’s and the direction David Cameron took the British Tories is the way we should go.

      Like

Comments are closed.