Nik Nanos thinks so.
Is there hope?
My thoughts are that Trudeau is pushing so far to the left that Blue Liberals are getting concerned and the new CPC leader Andrew Scheer is looking like a responsible alternative.
What do you think?
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Blue Like You2 
As they say a week is an eternity in politics so a lot can happen between now and the next election. Nonetheless I do think Trudeau’s big spending and deficits could cause some Blue Liberals/Red Tories (we lost much of that vote in 2015) to swing over as well as some progressive types, particularly here on the west coast with the pipelines and broken promise on electoral reform to swing over to the NDP. That being said I wouldn’t get too excited yet, but it doesn’t seem downright depressing like the polls were a year ago. If recent elections have taught us anything, a 20 point swing in even a few months is not unheard of. In Nova Scotia, the Liberals were leading 58% to 21% over the PCs back in January, while on May 30th, the results were 39% Libs to 36% PCs and likewise across the pond a 20 point Tory lead ended up being an only 2 point advantage. At this point I am cautiously optimistic, but realize a lot can and will happen between now in October 2019. I also hope Ontario and Alberta and perhaps even a few other provinces swing rightwards since assuming the NDP-Green alliance forms here in BC, that means Saskatchewan and Manitoba are the only provinces left with centre-right governments (you could say Quebec under Couillard is centre-right or at least he is more a Blue Liberal than progressive one), so it would be good if we could just get some balance instead of the left dominating much of the country.
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“Balance” would be a reasonable goal!
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Andrew Scheer is brilliant
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I agree! I think he will prove to be a huge challenge to Justin. It will also be interesting to see what develops in the NDP leadership race.
Trudeau’s been getting a free ride until now. But the mood seems to be changing – even among traditionally liberal media.
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The common accusations Scheer has which has made a number of people I’ve talk to on the left confident they can beat him (they said the same about Harper so they can be proven wrong) are as follows and here are the best rebuttals.
1. Andrew Scheer is a social conservative – Much like Harper he has promised not to open abortion and while some will use the free vote aspect, the Tories would need to win over 300 seats to have even a remote chance at passing an anti-abortion law, so more fearmongering, won’t happen. I am pro-choice and would never vote for a politician who planned to outlaw abortion and with Scheer I don’t believe it will happen. On Gay marriage, it’s true he opposed it in 2004 and 2006, but in 2016 at the Conservative policy convention he voted in favour of striking the policy of favouring the traditional definition of marriage. People’s views change on things, so I don’t think being against gay marriage at one point automatically disqualifies one.
2. Scheer is a Trump of the North – This has no basis whatsoever. Much like the left, the right is very diverse and being a conservative does not make one automatically a Trump supporter. I suspect like most past PM’s Scheer will work cooperatively with whomever is in the White House, but won’t hesitate to disagree when their policies don’t serve our interest.
3. Scheer is Harper II – This is probably somewhat true although being unknown to most and never having a cabinet position in the Harper government means he can adjust the party accordingly and make it look different. Parties don’t win by being a continuation of what cost them the election, but they don’t either by throwing out their principles either. They win by staying true to their values, but adjusting things accordingly with the times.
I think those are the three negatives his opponents will throw most heavily at him and if he can much like Patrick Brown has in Ontario and Harper in 2006 show he is not what opponents paint him as, I think he should do fine and whether he wins or not will depend on how Trudeau performs. His main goal now is to make sure he defines himself, not his opponents as when your opponents define you as they did with Stockwell Day, Harper in 2004, Dion, Ignatieff, and Hudak it is tough to win. But I am confident Scheer knows this and will make sure he defines himself so when the Liberals throw those at us it won’t stick. Trudeau’s big problem unlike Harper or Chretien but much like Martin is he set expectations really high and isn’t living up to them. People who set expectations low tend to last longer than those who set them high and Trudeau has and is bound to further disappoint many.
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I agree Miles. The best thing Andrew Scheer can do now is demonstrate that he is a responsible alternative when Trudeau’s glitz starts wearing thin.
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I would like to think that the honeymoon is indeed over but unfortunately I’m not convinced most voters cast their ballots based on sound policies and proven record of an incumbent goverment’s achievements (Oct 2015). In this Kardashian era, people seem to be more interested in someone’s socks rather than how much they can sock away with lower taxes.
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Nice pun, Gabby. 😉
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Thanks … but it didn’t help my feeling that Trudeau’s “irresistible charm” will still sway the uninformed. I guess this little wave of pessimism gripping me is due to a futile discussion I participated in recently on the proposed legalization of pot. Those for legalization cited the example of Portugal’s “legalization” whereas a bit of research finds that “Drugs are still illegal in Portugal …”. What Portugal has actually done is decriminalize pot but my debating opponents were adamant that legalization is the way to go.
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Forum just came out with an Ontario poll and interesting with all of Wynne’s announcements, doesn’t seem to be helping one bit (which is a good thing as I think like myself people see it as desperation). The labour reforms were mostly positively received although on interesting on minimum wage increase, the strongest opposition was amongst 18-34 year olds those most likely to be affected, perhaps maybe many of them figure it might cost them their job outright. While still 352 days left until the election, I get a feeling Wynne is just so unpopular nothing she can do to right the Liberal ship, but I won’t celebrate until she actually gets defeated.
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Miles, I am very hopeful that Ontario voters have finally wakened up to the dishonesty and desperation of this Liberal government. It will be 15 years in power next year. Time for a change to clear out the deadwood. 😉
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Well, maybe the honeymoon is over after all … two articles posted on National Newswatch:
“‘Shocked,’ ‘profoundly disappointed’: Ex-clerks pan [Liberals’] appointment process after Bosc passed over for House clerk”
and
“Reporter complains of restricted access at Liberal ‘open fundraising’ event”
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Gabby, yes those are hopeful signs indeed. And I’m seeing more of them especially regarding access to information and journos becoming very frustrated and cynical.
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it always looks like half the Liberals sitting behind the Prime Minister wish they could get out of Question Period and frown when he is talking….. they should maybe cross the floor
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Ruth, John Ivison has a great column in the National Post and he addresses that discomfort of the Liberal members (in response to MP Barlow’s question about the escalator tax increases to beer, wine, etc.): “Even Liberal MPs were moved to raise their eyes to the ceiling when Trudeau responded that he and his family will enjoy spending Canada Day visiting one of the county’s national parks.”
Trudeau is incredibly arrogant to expect that he can get away with this kind of obfuscation and non-answer forever.
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yes, I just read it and it is bang on. If anyone were to watch Question Period, they would never vote for this PM again. He has no idea what he is doing or saying.
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off topic but why are we paying for this when people are waiting years for other surgeries….
Dr. Eric Hoskins—-
Committed to increasing access to transition-related surgeries including bringing genital surgery to Ontario in 2018.
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There are many things that don’t make sense to me in Ontario Ruth, and that kind of prioritizing of scarce health dollars is certainly one of them.
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